30%?! No way lol. Maybe if the most loyal users but not daily active users - maybe 1% generously speaking.
Discussion
It depends - some rule of thumb say 2-5%, some say 50% . I think we’ve had this conversation before. But reality is we are gonna be debating on a completely superficial number.
What influences the % though is the users and the stage we are at - we are not at mainstream market yet where most users are not gonna gonna care - we are at early adopter phase where people are concerned. There’s also stats on daily uses vs signups with profile and these are a bit more hardcore Ppl here who are passionate abt Nostr and want to support its growth.
Maybe as user amount increased then we will see a lower churn but revenue will keep up
I’ll pray for 30%. With social I expect no more than 2% but who knows, with early adopter crowd might actually go 10+
Probably. Or less, or more. We don't know.
At 10% subscription and 20% MoM growth - break even is in Feb 2024
At 1% subscription and 20% MoM, net profit positive at Dec 2024.
At 10% subscription and 10% MoM growth - break even is in Oct 2024
But highly dependent on No of user growth MoM - so the goal would be to grow the user base - and this has to be done through various tools, and use cases
I did a simple sheet for you to play around with the numbers here. Infrastructure cost is complete assumption, dev's min wage based on damus Will. No of users is from one of the clients
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mRPqYvTJ1ckBiXHM9LEQIXz31H2uFw5vw2R48yf1F1s/edit?usp=sharing
Do you not think that 1,000 subscribers at $5/month is very possible for a client app - as an example?
That certainly should cover server costs, and be at least a supplementary income.
If you 10X that to 10,000 subscribers, that’s 50,000/month. I can’t see how at least some Nostr services can’t achieve that.
Keep in mind the $5 is just an average price/user. Maybe premium $15/month users make up 50% of revenue. Business may pay even more.
For sure, if you have many full time staff, pay for OS contributions yourself (instead of community fund), and don’t grow as your subscriptions and Nostr community grows, you’ll have a hard time.
As a side note, if Nostr has let’s say 10 great client apps for social. If each app has an even share, that’s only 100,000 total paying customers for the $50,000/month per client app revenue. If Nostr can’t attract let’s say 10% paying customers with 1 million total users - it will stay niche and likely die off slowly or centralise anyway.
Unless I’m tired and my numbers are bogus.. seems achievable within next two 10X growth cycles to 100X from today. I’ve already been through four Nostr 10X growth cycles.
Do you not think that 1,000 subscribers at $5/month is very possible for a client app - as an example?
That certainly should cover server costs, and be at least a supplementary income.
If you 10X that to 10,000 subscribers, that’s 50,000/month. I can’t see how at least some Nostr services can’t achieve that.
Keep in mind the $5 is just an average price/user. Maybe premium $15/month users make up 50% of revenue. Business may pay even more.
For sure, if you have many full time staff, pay for OS contributions yourself (instead of community fund), and don’t grow as your subscriptions and Nostr community grows, you’ll have a hard time.
As a side note, if Nostr has let’s say 10 great client apps for social. If each app has an even share, that’s only 100,000 total paying customers for the $50,000/month per client app revenue. If Nostr can’t attract let’s say 10% paying customers with 1 million total users - it will stay niche and likely die off slowly or centralise anyway.
Unless I’m tired and my numbers are bogus.. seems achievable within next two 10X growth cycles to 100X from today. I’ve already been through four Nostr 10X growth cycles.
Do you not think that 1,000 subscribers at $5/month is very possible for a client app - as an example?
That certainly should cover server costs, and be at least a supplementary income.
If you 10X that to 10,000 subscribers, that’s 50,000/month. I can’t see how at least some Nostr services can’t achieve that.
Keep in mind the $5 is just an average price/user. Maybe premium $15/month users make up 50% of revenue. Business may pay even more.
For sure, if you have many full time staff, pay for OS contributions yourself (instead of community fund), and don’t grow as your subscriptions and Nostr community grows, you’ll have a hard time.
As a side note, if Nostr has let’s say 10 great client apps for social. If each app has an even share, that’s only 100,000 total paying customers for the $50,000/month per client app revenue. If Nostr can’t attract let’s say 10% paying customers with 1 million total users - it will stay niche and likely die off slowly or centralise anyway.
Unless I’m tired and my numbers are bogus.. seems achievable within next two 10X growth cycles to 100X from today. I’ve already been through four Nostr 10X growth cycles.
Do you not think that 1,000 subscribers at $5/month is very possible for a client app - as an example?
That certainly should cover server costs, and be at least a supplementary income.
If you 10X that to 10,000 subscribers, that’s 50,000/month. I can’t see how at least some Nostr services can’t achieve that.
Keep in mind the $5 is just an average price/user. Maybe premium $15/month users make up 50% of revenue. Business may pay even more.
For sure, if you have many full time staff, pay for OS contributions yourself (instead of community fund), and don’t grow as your subscriptions and Nostr community grows, you’ll have a hard time.
As a side note, if Nostr has let’s say 10 great client apps for social. If each app has an even share, that’s only 100,000 total paying customers for the $50,000/month per client app revenue. If Nostr can’t attract let’s say 10% paying customers with 1 million total users - it will stay niche and likely die off slowly or centralise anyway.
Unless I’m tired and my numbers are bogus.. seems achievable within next two 10X growth cycles to 100X from today. I’ve already been through four Nostr 10X growth cycles.
That’s how much systems monthly costs are at the moment without updates.
Saleforce changed from free tier to duck you pay me businesses model.
Need to grow. Not in current state. Assuming a 1% conversion, we need a 100x from here to pay 3 clients 10k/mo at $3 per user - ignoring churn.
Not in current state meaning todays network size, or meaning we’re doing something wrong or not doing something we should be?
I’m expecting maybe the next six months to be a pain period for devs - around their time and expenses. Hopefully by six months we will have easier payments, subscriptions, toward a 10X user base, more innovation and reasons to join Nostr - not just social.
We haven’t even tested the market yet with subscriptions.. only very early days and initial learning period.
Meaning not with current active user base.
I think we need a combo of subscriptions, random zaps, marketplace fees (sell stuff), and at least a 10x i users but hopefully 100x.
Need to get influencers in here and start building out the non-social-first clients - music, marketplace, zap to show etc.
I completely agree. Everytime I see a new hug from Jack on my newsfeed, I’m automatically expecting to see a new user and this makes me happy. Is there a way to understand what interest the new users and perhaps build more tools around it ?