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Isn't bitcoin already well distributed, and the idea of 10 holders in total highly unlikely? Even if 10 were trying to be all-owning there would be at least 1 more out there not selling their bitcoin - you. And I recall 74% of all bitcoin hasn't moved in months since the ETFs. Might want to fact check that, but overall the meglananiacs will be limited by refusal to sell for any amount of fiat shit.

Comte de Sats Germain 1y ago

We have a catch-22 situation. 10 or 20 or 100, doesn't matter. If bitcoin is only used as a savings mechanism, then fiat wins because its still the currency and still funds tyranny. But if we have a vibrant bitcoin economy, meaning it becomes currency, then the etf's and any other traded fund that derives value from holding btc will have a supply to buy with fiat, continually removing btc from the market until none is left.

The second scenario may appear favorable because we can (supposedly) soft fork in more decimal places and then "its going up forever, laura." Or whatever her name was... But that scenario is an argumentative point to prove absurdity, like Schrödinger's cat. BTW, it's insane how many people take that cat as simultaneously alive and dead... The point was to prove absurdity. Its like in most math problems, at least the ones grounded in real world scenarios, you have to discard infinity solutions. So, this isn't that, but I think I'm justified in assuming "infinity" isn't going to happen.

What breaks? Idk, but something... It also reminds me of the credit cycle - you can see the credit cycle has topped by looking for yield inversions, assuming the yields referenced are actually the relevant numbers (might not be anymore, but theory is still good). Once you can say for sure the credit cycle is topped, meaning new businesses are getting negative returns on every dollar borrowed, then a "deflationary event" has to happen. You can't predict where it will happen, that would be another absurdity, but you can be sure it will happen. So bringing it back to bitcoin - what will happen? Something that brings a sensible equilibrium between the infinity the funds hold and the actual value traded outside the funds. It'll crash. Repeatedly. Forever. And boom repeatedly. Forever. As long as fiat exists.

The problem is, I don't see anything actually wrecking fiat. Fiat is designed to wreck. Forever... And it never dies because states exist. Its like the monster Mao, the handsomest man in China (I heard that in China) said : "power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Real power is the market, but violence controls markets. States are violence.

I *really* want bitcoin to be the one global currency. But my reasoning ability hit a wall. I think it can only be savings. That's not good enough for me. And that's all I got, cuz I don't see anything better.

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Discussion

Olive Grove Eggs 1y ago

The Weimar republic comes to mind. Even if fiat still exists there comes a point where nobody wants it in exchange for real things. As Max Keiser notes, at some point we will be offered 10m for a bitcoin and nobody will bite. The fiat becomes pointless, however easily big players can access its endless pot they won't be able to buy BTC with it.

I think that's how it is going to play out eventually.

There are all sorts of what ifs, like being forced to accept fiat or forced confiscation of valuable hard money etc, but that's a set of issues that implies a governnent is hanging on to power by a thread. That's when a social issue for the people to resolve takes precedent, and concerns for btc as a currency has to sit and wait for an outcome.

Comte de Sats Germain 1y ago

I don't think that will affect the broader economy. 10 mil per coin is cheap, BTW. But there's our real challenge - people are blinded by dreams of riches, instead of thinking about how we liberate humanity. I digress... I don't think btc's price has any affect on the usability of the dollar or whatever fiat. If they need to make a 10k dollar note so people can buy a carton of eggs, no problem. That's about what it costs in South Korea, using their won - they didn't start at that point. Wheelbarrows of digits on your credit card is no problem at all. Actually, people would love it, since such high inflation would effectively zero out their existing credit card balance.

But supposing you're right, and the USD becomes unusable because of bitcoin storing a lot of value... Then we have an even worse situation. Anyone doing anything will need a loan from a bank that used to be a btc fund. And loans get repaid with interest. So, ... Oh.

New thought. This is evil... But it might be the solution. So the bitcoin economy is rescued by defaults, which literally have to happen, because interest payments are unpayable with deflationary money. Can't take any chances... We'll have to purposely crash the economy. That's doable. The defaults disperse the btc because businesses pay their suppliers. If the rate of deflation is high enough, or janky enough, no bank can profit on btc... People will suffer, though. Not a good solution, but at least not nothing.

The halving cycle could ripple onwards long after it ends.

Hmm. And I think that means the best business a bitcoiner can be in, other than selling btc, is off grid survival gear.

But it doesn't matter. That's all based on the supposition that saving in btc magically ends the USD. That would only be true if the government couldn't borrow USD. They can always borrow USD. Hyperinflation very well could happen, but plenty of countries have carried on under conditions of hyperinflation.

Well. Stream of consciousness. No point in making it look pretty.

Olive Grove Eggs 1y ago

Your point about the economy crashing when the dollar becomes valueless - well, yeah. That's the way of hyperinflation.

The "evil" of the temporary collapse outweighs no collapse of the current matrix system..

Satoshi started dispersing bitcoin as far and as fast as possible, so that the maximum number of people had an instrument to get through a fiat financial collapse. If it had been a hodl technology BTC would never have taken off.

This is all points I remember from Max Keiser btw.

It is becoming clear that if we believe in bitcoin we have to spend it into the general economy. And because it is such a hard asset, whatever it is spent should be put to very good use, hardening the economy as it spreads, reducing the impact of fiat collapse.

Comte de Sats Germain 1y ago

Trying to respond just put me back in that catch-22 territory...

Olive Grove Eggs 1y ago

Good to air your concerns even if you don't get an answer from someone like me who doesn't know either. I intuit that bitcoin will be a force for good with its main role being to blow the lid on the fiat system. No doubt it will be a rocky path.

Comte de Sats Germain 1y ago

Its a force for good. I'm worried about details only.