# 恒大 vs 万科：香港清盘路径比较与博弈分析

## 恒大清盘事件时间轴与债权人行为

[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrandes-unit-receives-liquidation-order-hong-kong-court-2025-01-13/#:~:text=Evergrande%2C%20the%20world%27s%20most%20indebted,its%20%2423%20billion%20offshore%20debt)。_

* **2021年末**：恒大首次境外债务正式违约，开启房企债务危机典型案例[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E5%9C%A8%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%BB%A4%E4%B9%8B%E5%89%8D%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E3%80%81%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E3%80%81%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E7%89%A9%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%B7%E5%9C%A8%E5%BD%93%E6%97%A5%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E4%B8%AD%E9%83%BD%E5%A4%A7%E5%B9%85%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C%E3%80%82%E5%9C%A8%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%BB%A4%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E4%B9%8B%E5%90%8E%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%BB%E4%BD%93%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E7%A8%B3%E5%AE%9A%E3%80%82)。政府介入成立风险处置委员会，但未提供直接资金救助，仅侧重维护购房者和金融稳定。

* **2022年6月**：恒大一家投资者 **Top Shine Global**（佳盛环球，萨摩亚注册）向香港高等法院提交清盘呈请（案件号HCCW 220/2022），成为恒大**被申请清盘**的开端[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%B3%95%E5%AE%98%E9%99%88%E9%9D%99%E8%8A%AC%E5%9C%A8%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%B4%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E8%B5%84%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%B5%E5%80%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%B6%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%8F%88%E7%BC%BA%E4%B9%8F%E8%B6%B3%E5%A4%9F%E8%BF%9B%E5%B1%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E3%80%82)。呈请涉及债权金额约1.1亿美元，不到恒大全部境外债务的1%[m.thepaper.cn](https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19764413#:~:text=%E5%B0%86%E5%B0%BD%E5%BF%AB%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%B0%8A%E9%87%8D%E6%89%80%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E8%80%85%E6%9D%83%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E3%80%82)。多数主要境外债权人（代表约110亿美元债权）当时反对立即清盘并提交支持函，支持恒大争取重组时间[m.thepaper.cn](https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19764413#:~:text=%E5%B0%86%E5%B0%BD%E5%BF%AB%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%B0%8A%E9%87%8D%E6%89%80%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E8%80%85%E6%9D%83%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E3%80%82)。这表明大债权人起初更倾向于协商重组，而小债权人更可能率先寻求法律清盘途径施压。

* **2022年8月-2023年**：清盘呈请的聆讯多次延期。首次聆讯原定2022年8月31日，后延至11月7日[m.thepaper.cn](https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19764413#:~:text=9%E6%9C%885%E6%97%A5%E5%8D%88%E9%97%B4%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%EF%BC%8803333,Samoa%29%20Limited%EF%BC%88%E4%BD%B3%E7%9B%9B%E7%8E%AF%E7%90%83%EF%BC%89%E5%9C%A82022%E5%B9%B46%E6%9C%8827%E6%97%A5%E5%90%91%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%8F%90%E5%87%BA%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E5%91%88%E8%AF%B7%E5%85%AC%E5%91%8A%EF%BC%8C%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E5%9C%A82022%E5%B9%B49%E6%9C%885%E6%97%A5%E6%89%B9%E5%87%86%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E5%BB%B6%E6%9C%9F%E7%94%B3%E8%AF%B7%EF%BC%8C%E8%AF%A5%E5%91%88%E8%AF%B7%E7%9A%84%E8%81%86%E8%AE%AF%E5%B0%86%E5%BB%B6%E8%87%B32022%E5%B9%B411%E6%9C%887%E6%97%A5%E3%80%82)。此后香港高院先后**七次延迟**清盘聆讯，一方面给予恒大时间提出债务重组方案，另一方面避免立即清盘对金融市场造成冲击[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%B3%95%E5%AE%98%E9%99%88%E9%9D%99%E8%8A%AC%E5%9C%A8%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%B4%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E8%B5%84%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%B5%E5%80%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%B6%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%8F%88%E7%BC%BA%E4%B9%8F%E8%B6%B3%E5%A4%9F%E8%BF%9B%E5%B1%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E3%80%82)。恒大多次宣布将出台重组方案，但进展缓慢。期间恒大主动在美国申请第15章破产保护（2023年8月）以防止境外资产遭扣押[zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%82%B5%E5%8B%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F#:~:text=%5D%E3%80%82%E8%87%B310%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E5%B0%86%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E8%81%86%E8%AE%AF%E6%8A%BC%E5%90%8E%E8%87%B3%E5%90%8C%E5%B9%B412%E6%9C%884%E6%97%A5%E4%B8%BE%E8%A1%8C%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B6%E6%8C%87%E8%BF%99%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E4%B8%80%E6%AC%A1%E6%8A%BC%E5%90%8E%EF%BC%8C%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%A8%E6%AD%A4%E6%9C%9F%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%8E%E5%80%BA%E6%9D%83%E4%BA%BA%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE)。

* **2023年下旬**：重组谈判陷入僵局。香港高院在2023年10月曾表示延期至12月4日为**最后一次**押后，要求恒大与债权人达成协议[zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%82%B5%E5%8B%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F#:~:text=%5D%E3%80%82%E8%87%B310%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E5%B0%86%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E8%81%86%E8%AE%AF%E6%8A%BC%E5%90%8E%E8%87%B3%E5%90%8C%E5%B9%B412%E6%9C%884%E6%97%A5%E4%B8%BE%E8%A1%8C%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B6%E6%8C%87%E8%BF%99%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E4%B8%80%E6%AC%A1%E6%8A%BC%E5%90%8E%EF%BC%8C%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%A8%E6%AD%A4%E6%9C%9F%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%8E%E5%80%BA%E6%9D%83%E4%BA%BA%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE)。但12月恒大再次请求宽限，高院最终将聆讯推迟至**2024年1月29日**[zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%82%B5%E5%8B%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F#:~:text=%5D%E3%80%82%E8%87%B310%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E5%B0%86%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E8%81%86%E8%AE%AF%E6%8A%BC%E5%90%8E%E8%87%B3%E5%90%8C%E5%B9%B412%E6%9C%884%E6%97%A5%E4%B8%BE%E8%A1%8C%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B6%E6%8C%87%E8%BF%99%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E4%B8%80%E6%AC%A1%E6%8A%BC%E5%90%8E%EF%BC%8C%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%A8%E6%AD%A4%E6%9C%9F%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%8E%E5%80%BA%E6%9D%83%E4%BA%BA%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE)。在此期间，恒大董事局主席等高管因涉嫌违法被采取强制措施，境内多地债权人诉讼导致恒大资产被冻结、项目被接管，集团境内核心企业已出现破产清算程序[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=%E6%AD%A4%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%8C%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E8%87%AA%E7%8D%B2%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E4%BB%A5%E4%BE%86%EF%BC%8C%E4%BA%86%E8%A7%A3%E5%88%B0%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E9%9D%A2%E8%87%A8%E6%95%B8%E4%BB%A5%E7%99%BE%E8%A8%88%E7%9A%84%E5%82%B5%E6%AC%8A%E4%BA%BA%E8%A8%B4%E8%A8%9F%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%BE%E4%B9%8E%E5%85%A8%E6%95%B8%E9%87%9D%20%E5%B0%8D%E6%9C%AC%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E7%9A%84%E5%85%A7%E5%9C%B0%E5%AD%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%8A%E8%BF%B0%E8%A8%B4%E8%A8%9F%E5%B0%8E%E8%87%B4%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E9%81%AD%E5%87%8D%E7%B5%90%E3%80%81%E5%BC%B7%E5%88%B6%E5%9F%B7%E8%A1%8C%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%95%9F%E5%8B%95%E3%80%81%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E9%A0%85%E7%9B%AE%E8%A2%AB%E4%BF%A1%20%E8%A8%97%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%8E%A5%E7%AE%A1%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%A5%E5%8F%8A%E7%A0%B4%E7%94%A2%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E3%80%82%E5%85%B6%E4%B8%AD%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%E5%BB%A3%E5%B7%9E%E5%B8%82%E5%87%B1%E9%9A%86%E7%BD%AE%E6%A5%AD%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%A2%83%E5%85%A7%E7%A0%B4%E7%94%A2%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%EF%BC%8C%E8%A9%B2%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%82%BA%E6%9C%AC%20%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E6%88%90%E5%93%A1%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%EF%BC%88%E3%80%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E3%80%8D%EF%BC%89%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E6%AF%8D%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%EF%BC%8C%E8%80%8C%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E4%BD%9C%E7%82%BA%E6%9C%AC%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E6%9C%80%E7%B5%82)。

* **2024年1月29日**：香港高等法院法官陈静芬裁定恒大资不抵债，债务重组毫无进展，**正式颁令恒大清盘**[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%89%93%E5%8D%B0)[zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%82%B5%E5%8B%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F#:~:text=match%20at%20L536%202024%E5%B9%B41%E6%9C%8829%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%AF%B9%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E4%B8%8B%E8%BE%BE%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%BB%A4,160%20%5D%E3%80%82)。恒大集团进入强制清算程序，安迈顾问有限公司的杜艾迪 (Edward Middleton) 和黄咏诗 (Tiffany Wong) 被委任为清盘人[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E6%96%BC%202024%20%E5%B9%B4%201%20%E6%9C%88,%E6%97%A5%E9%A0%92%E4%BB%A4%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E5%BE%8C%EF%BC%8C%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E5%AE%89%E9%82%81%E9%A1%A7%E5%95%8F%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E8%91%A3%E4%BA%8B%E7%B8%BD%20%E7%B6%93%E7%90%86%E6%9D%9C%E8%89%BE%E8%BF%AA%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%EF%BC%88Edward%20Middleton%EF%BC%89%E5%8F%8A%E9%BB%83%E8%A9%A0%E8%A9%A9%E5%A5%B3%E5%A3%AB%E6%93%94%E4%BB%BB%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%82%20%E5%9C%A8%E6%9C%AC%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A%E4%B8%AD%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%EF%BC%88%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%B8%AD%EF%BC%89%E7%95%8C%E5%AE%9A%E7%82%BA%E3%80%8C%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E3%80%8D%EF%BC%8C%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E9%80%A3%E5%90%8C%E5%85%B6%E9%99%84%E5%B1%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%95%8C%E5%AE%9A%E7%82%BA%E3%80%8C%E6%9C%AC%20%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E3%80%8D%EF%BC%8C%E6%9D%9C%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%E5%8F%8A%E9%BB%83%E5%A5%B3%E5%A3%AB%E7%95%8C%E5%AE%9A%E7%82%BA%E3%80%8C%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%8D%E3%80%82)。清盘人接管恒大在境外可控资产（包括恒大物业等境外附属公司的股权，价值约270亿港元）[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=Edwards%20%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%EF%BC%89%E5%B7%B2%E7%8D%B2%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E7%82%BA%E8%A9%B2%E5%85%A9%E9%96%93%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%9B%E5%8F%8A%20,29%20%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%89%E7%B4%84%E7%82%BA%20270%20%E5%84%84%E6%B8%AF%E5%85%83%EF%BC%8835%20%E5%84%84%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%EF%BC%89%E3%80%82%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E7%8F%BE%E6%99%82%E7%84%A1%E6%B3%95%E4%BC%B0%E8%A8%88%E6%9C%80%E7%B5%82%E5%8F%AF%E5%BE%9E%E8%A9%B2%E7%AD%89%E5%AF%A6%E9%AB%94%E8%AE%8A%E7%8F%BE%E7%9A%84%E9%87%91%E9%A1%8D%E3%80%82)并展开资产处置、追讨前期转移资产等工作[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%EF%BC%8C%E5%9C%A8%E7%8F%BE%E9%9A%8E%E6%AE%B5%EF%BC%8C%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E8%AA%8D%E7%82%BA%E6%9C%AC%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E9%9B%A3%E4%BB%A5%E5%AF%A6%E7%8F%BE%E6%95%B4%E9%AB%94%E9%87%8D%E7%B5%84%EF%BC%8C%E9%80%99%E8%88%87%E4%BB%96%E5%80%91%E8%87%AA%E7%8D%B2%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E4%BB%A5%E4%BE%86%E6%89%80%E7%99%BC%E4%BD%88%E7%9A%84%E5%85%AC%E5%91%8A%20%E5%86%85%E5%AE%B9%E7%9B%B8%E4%B8%80%E8%87%B4%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%86%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E4%BB%8D%E5%B0%87%E6%8C%81%E7%BA%8C%E6%8E%A2%E8%A8%8E%E6%BD%9B%E5%9C%A8%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E6%80%A7%E3%80%82%E8%88%87%E6%AD%A4%E5%90%8C%E6%99%82%EF%BC%8C%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E5%B0%87%E7%B9%BC%E7%BA%8C%E5%B0%88%E6%B3%A8%E6%96%BC%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E8%AE%8A%E7%8F%BE%E3%80%81%20%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5%E7%A0%B4%E7%94%A2%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0%E4%BB%A5%E5%8F%8A%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E7%94%B1%E6%AD%A4%E7%94%A2%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%B3%95%E5%BE%8B%E8%A8%B4%E8%A8%9F%E3%80%82%20%E8%AA%A0%E5%A6%82%202025,%E5%B9%B4%208%20%E6%9C%88%2025%20%E6%97%A5%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%BE%9E%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E8%81%AF%E5%90%88)。当天恒大系股票在港交所停牌，随后恒大股票在停牌18个月后于2025年8月正式从港交所摘牌退市[zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%82%B5%E5%8B%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F#:~:text=%E5%8A%9E%E4%BA%BA%E8%AE%B8%E5%AE%B6%E5%8D%B0%E7%AD%89%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E9%87%87%E5%8F%96%E5%BC%BA%E5%88%B6%E6%8E%AA%E6%96%BD%E3%80%822024%E5%B9%B41%E6%9C%8829%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E4%B8%8B%E4%BB%A4%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E5%8D%B3%E6%97%B6%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E3%80%822025%E5%B9%B48%E6%9C%8825%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E7%BB%8F%E8%BF%87%E9%95%BF%E8%BE%BE18%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%88%E7%9A%84%E5%81%9C%E7%89%8C%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%20%E5%9B%A2%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E4%BB%8E%E6%B8%AF%E8%82%A1%E9%80%80%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%86%E5%8E%BB%E5%B9%B4%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E6%99%82%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%8D%E5%9C%A8%E5%A4%A7%E9%99%B8280%E5%80%8B%E4%B8%AD%E5%B0%8F%E5%9E%8B%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E5%85%A7%EF%BC%8C%E6%9C%89%E9%AB%98%E9%81%941300%E5%80%8B%E5%BB%BA%E6%A1%88%E8%99%95%E5%9C%A8%E7%88%9B%E5%B0%BE%E6%88%96%E5%8D%B3%E5%B0%87%E7%88%9B%E5%B0%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%8B%80%E6%85%8B%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%8D%E5%BE%85%E9%87%8D%E7%B5%84%E5%92%8C%E6%B8%85%E7%AE%97%E3%80%82)。

上述恒大清盘过程显示：境外小型债权人具备**突袭式**法律行动动力，而多数债权人在初期选择观望和支持重组，以期改善回收率[m.thepaper.cn](https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19764413#:~:text=%E5%B0%86%E5%B0%BD%E5%BF%AB%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%B0%8A%E9%87%8D%E6%89%80%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E8%80%85%E6%9D%83%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E3%80%82)。然而，长期延期未能阻止清盘结局，最终法律程序主导下，恒大海外资产控制权从公司管理层转移至清盘人手中[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E7%8D%B2%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E5%BE%8C%E4%BE%BF%E9%9A%A8%E5%8D%B3%E8%88%87%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E5%8F%8A%E5%85%B6%E5%85%A9%E9%96%93%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%E9%99%84%E5%B1%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E2%80%94%E2%80%94%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E7%89%A9%E6%A5%AD%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%20%EF%BC%886666)。清盘令前后，恒大境内外资产实际处置出现明显断层：境外清盘人仅能掌控境外子公司股权等有限资产约35亿美元[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=Edwards%20%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%EF%BC%89%E5%B7%B2%E7%8D%B2%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E7%82%BA%E8%A9%B2%E5%85%A9%E9%96%93%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%9B%E5%8F%8A%20,29%20%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%89%E7%B4%84%E7%82%BA%20270%20%E5%84%84%E6%B8%AF%E5%85%83%EF%BC%8835%20%E5%84%84%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%EF%BC%89%E3%80%82%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E7%8F%BE%E6%99%82%E7%84%A1%E6%B3%95%E4%BC%B0%E8%A8%88%E6%9C%80%E7%B5%82%E5%8F%AF%E5%BE%9E%E8%A9%B2%E7%AD%89%E5%AF%A6%E9%AB%94%E8%AE%8A%E7%8F%BE%E7%9A%84%E9%87%91%E9%A1%8D%E3%80%82)；大量境内地产项目和资产则因监管和法律壁垒，未直接纳入香港清盘财产范围[finance.sina.com.cn](https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-06-27/doc-imizirav0797181.shtml#:~:text=%E6%8D%AE%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%EF%BC%8CIPG%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%A6%96%E5%B8%AD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E5%AE%B6%E6%9F%8F%E6%96%87%E5%96%9C%E8%A1%A8%E7%A4%BA%EF%BC%8C%E7%94%B1%E4%BA%8E%E5%86%85%E6%88%BF%E8%82%A1%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%8A%E9%83%BD%E4%BB%A5%E5%B0%8F%E7%BA%A2%E7%AD%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F%E5%9C%A8%E6%B8%AF%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%8C%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E5%80%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E5%80%BA%E4%B8%BB%E4%BD%93%E9%83%BD%E4%BD%8D%E4%BA%8E%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%8C%E6%8C%89%E7%85%A7%E5%8F%91%E5%80%BA%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%BE%80%E5%BE%80%E5%B7%B2%E8%A7%A6%E5%8F%91%E4%BA%86%20%E8%A2%AB%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%A1%E4%BB%B6%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E6%97%A0%E8%AE%BA%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%89%E8%AE%BC%EF%BC%8C%E8%A2%AB%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E6%88%96%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E6%9C%BA%E6%9E%84%E8%A3%81%E5%AE%9A%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A7%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85%E3%80%82%E4%B8%8D%E8%BF%87%E7%94%B1%E4%BA%8E%E8%BF%99%E4%BA%9B%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E5%92%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E9%83%BD%E9%9B%86%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%86%85%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%9C%AA%E5%BF%85%E8%83%BD%E5%A4%9F%E5%BE%97%E5%88%B0%E5%A2%83%E5%86%85%E6%B3%95%20%E9%99%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%B3%E8%AF%B7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%B8%80%E8%88%AC%E5%8F%AA%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%86%E7%BB%99%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E6%96%BD%E5%8E%8B%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%A5%E4%BF%83%E4%BD%BF%E5%85%B6%E5%81%9A%E5%87%BA%E5%AF%B9%E8%87%AA%E8%BA%AB%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%A6%A5%E5%8D%8F%E8%80%8C%E5%B7%B2%E3%80%82)。这一过程中境内外债权人行为策略的差异，成为研判万科情境的重要参照。

**清盘路径比较表：恒大 vs 万科**

| **事项** | **恒大（中国恒大集团, 03333.HK）** | **万科（中国万科企业, 02202.HK）** |

| ----------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |

| **违约触发** | 2021年底首笔美元债违约，流动性枯竭[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E5%9C%A8%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%BB%A4%E4%B9%8B%E5%89%8D%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E3%80%81%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6%E3%80%81%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E7%89%A9%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%B7%E5%9C%A8%E5%BD%93%E6%97%A5%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E4%B8%AD%E9%83%BD%E5%A4%A7%E5%B9%85%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C%E3%80%82%E5%9C%A8%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%BB%A4%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E4%B9%8B%E5%90%8E%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%BB%E4%BD%93%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E7%A8%B3%E5%AE%9A%E3%80%82)；此后境外债重组久拖不决。 | 2025年末出现首次实质性违约风险：12月18日到期的境内债券展期请求未获通过[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=Dec%2014%20%28Reuters%29%20,hit%20property%20sector)。境外美元债跌至面值20%左右，违约压力陡增[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=reiterated%20a%20goal%20to%20stabilize,specific%20measures)。 |

| **清盘申请方** | 2022年6月萨摩亚籍债权人Top Shine提出清盘呈请，涉及债权\~1.1亿美元[m.thepaper.cn](https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19764413#:~:text=%E5%B0%86%E5%B0%BD%E5%BF%AB%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%B0%8A%E9%87%8D%E6%89%80%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E8%80%85%E6%9D%83%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E3%80%82)（恒大房车宝投资人，小型境外债权人） | （潜在）境外债权人或受托管理人可能提出。境外债总额 \~$54亿（含贷款），主要为万科地产香港公司发行的无抵押债券[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=bondholders%20could%20face%20recovery%20rates,provisions%2C%20these%20are)。债权人或聘请顾问（Houlihan Lokey）组建小组，准备启动清盘/追偿[aastocks.com](https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489333/3#:~:text=Offshore%20creditors%20of%20CHINA%20VANKE,negotiations%2C%20Bloomberg%20reported%2C%20citing%20sources)[aastocks.com](https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489333/3#:~:text=Related%20News%20JPM%20Ratings%2C%20TPs,Short%20Selling%20Data%20as%20at)。 |

| **法律架构** | _境外_: Cayman注册的恒大集团作为发行人/担保人，香港上市，受香港法院管辖。无_Keepwell_协议，境外债直接针对恒大母公司清盘[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrandes-unit-receives-liquidation-order-hong-kong-court-2025-01-13/#:~:text=Evergrande%2C%20the%20world%27s%20most%20indebted,its%20%2423%20billion%20offshore%20debt)。 _境内_: 主要资产在内地子公司（恒大地产等），与上市公司法律主体隔离。境内已由政府主导风险处置，部分项目被接管或破产重整[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=%E6%AD%A4%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%8C%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E8%87%AA%E7%8D%B2%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E4%BB%A5%E4%BE%86%EF%BC%8C%E4%BA%86%E8%A7%A3%E5%88%B0%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E9%9D%A2%E8%87%A8%E6%95%B8%E4%BB%A5%E7%99%BE%E8%A8%88%E7%9A%84%E5%82%B5%E6%AC%8A%E4%BA%BA%E8%A8%B4%E8%A8%9F%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%BE%E4%B9%8E%E5%85%A8%E6%95%B8%E9%87%9D%20%E5%B0%8D%E6%9C%AC%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E7%9A%84%E5%85%A7%E5%9C%B0%E5%AD%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%8A%E8%BF%B0%E8%A8%B4%E8%A8%9F%E5%B0%8E%E8%87%B4%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E9%81%AD%E5%87%8D%E7%B5%90%E3%80%81%E5%BC%B7%E5%88%B6%E5%9F%B7%E8%A1%8C%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E5%95%9F%E5%8B%95%E3%80%81%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E9%A0%85%E7%9B%AE%E8%A2%AB%E4%BF%A1%20%E8%A8%97%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%8E%A5%E7%AE%A1%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%A5%E5%8F%8A%E7%A0%B4%E7%94%A2%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%E3%80%82%E5%85%B6%E4%B8%AD%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%E5%BB%A3%E5%B7%9E%E5%B8%82%E5%87%B1%E9%9A%86%E7%BD%AE%E6%A5%AD%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%A2%83%E5%85%A7%E7%A0%B4%E7%94%A2%E7%A8%8B%E5%BA%8F%EF%BC%8C%E8%A9%B2%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%82%BA%E6%9C%AC%20%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E6%88%90%E5%93%A1%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%EF%BC%88%E3%80%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E3%80%8D%EF%BC%89%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%B4%E6%8E%A5%E6%AF%8D%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%EF%BC%8C%E8%80%8C%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E4%BD%9C%E7%82%BA%E6%9C%AC%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98%E6%9C%80%E7%B5%82)。 | _境外_: 采用**Keepwell协议**支持的离岸架构。美元债由万科旗下香港子公司发行，母公司万科提供维好协议但非担保[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=for%20approximately%20%24950%20million%20in,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)。香港子公司资产仅限于所持**GLP物流公司21%股权**，账面值21亿美元但质押贷款12亿美元，净值不足10亿美元[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=bondholders%20could%20face%20recovery%20rates,without%20parent%20company%20repayment%20guarantees)。 _境内_: 万科企业股份有限公司为深圳上市的母体（国企背景股东深圳地铁持股约30%[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=Vanke%20is%20about%2030,sliding%20into%20severe%20financial%20trouble)），国内地产项目和现金流主要在境内，境外债权人对其直接索偿受限于维好协议的法律效力。 |

| **法院进程** | 香港高院多次延后聆讯（总计7次延期，历时19个月）[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%B3%95%E5%AE%98%E9%99%88%E9%9D%99%E8%8A%AC%E5%9C%A8%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%B4%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E8%B5%84%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%B5%E5%80%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%B6%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%8F%88%E7%BC%BA%E4%B9%8F%E8%B6%B3%E5%A4%9F%E8%BF%9B%E5%B1%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E3%80%82)，直至2024年1月29日清盘令生效[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%89%93%E5%8D%B0)。清盘后清盘人接管恒大境外资产，并与境内程序协调。恒大股票于2025年8月退市[zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%82%B5%E5%8B%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F#:~:text=%E5%8A%9E%E4%BA%BA%E8%AE%B8%E5%AE%B6%E5%8D%B0%E7%AD%89%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98%E9%87%87%E5%8F%96%E5%BC%BA%E5%88%B6%E6%8E%AA%E6%96%BD%E3%80%822024%E5%B9%B41%E6%9C%8829%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E4%B8%8B%E4%BB%A4%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E5%8D%B3%E6%97%B6%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E3%80%822025%E5%B9%B48%E6%9C%8825%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E7%BB%8F%E8%BF%87%E9%95%BF%E8%BE%BE18%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%88%E7%9A%84%E5%81%9C%E7%89%8C%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%20%E5%9B%A2%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E4%BB%8E%E6%B8%AF%E8%82%A1%E9%80%80%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%8C%E4%BD%86%E5%8E%BB%E5%B9%B4%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E6%99%82%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%8D%E5%9C%A8%E5%A4%A7%E9%99%B8280%E5%80%8B%E4%B8%AD%E5%B0%8F%E5%9E%8B%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E5%85%A7%EF%BC%8C%E6%9C%89%E9%AB%98%E9%81%941300%E5%80%8B%E5%BB%BA%E6%A1%88%E8%99%95%E5%9C%A8%E7%88%9B%E5%B0%BE%E6%88%96%E5%8D%B3%E5%B0%87%E7%88%9B%E5%B0%BE%E7%9A%84%E7%8B%80%E6%85%8B%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%8D%E5%BE%85%E9%87%8D%E7%B5%84%E5%92%8C%E6%B8%85%E7%AE%97%E3%80%82)。 | （假设）如境外债权人在宽限期内提请清盘：香港高院可能尽快受理聆讯，考虑万科债务重组前景。鉴于恒大先例，法院或给予有限宽限期让万科提出方案，但窗口期料远短于恒大。若万科无法在短期内提出令境外债权人满意的方案，不排除**迅速清盘**的可能。 |

| **资产处置与控制** | 清盘令后，境外清盘人掌控境外子公司股权等资产 (\~35亿美元)[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=Edwards%20%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%EF%BC%89%E5%B7%B2%E7%8D%B2%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E7%82%BA%E8%A9%B2%E5%85%A9%E9%96%93%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%9B%E5%8F%8A%20,29%20%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%89%E7%B4%84%E7%82%BA%20270%20%E5%84%84%E6%B8%AF%E5%85%83%EF%BC%8835%20%E5%84%84%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%EF%BC%89%E3%80%82%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E7%8F%BE%E6%99%82%E7%84%A1%E6%B3%95%E4%BC%B0%E8%A8%88%E6%9C%80%E7%B5%82%E5%8F%AF%E5%BE%9E%E8%A9%B2%E7%AD%89%E5%AF%A6%E9%AB%94%E8%AE%8A%E7%8F%BE%E7%9A%84%E9%87%91%E9%A1%8D%E3%80%82)；境内资产大多由内地债权人和监管部门掌控，境外清盘裁决在内地执行面临障碍[finance.sina.com.cn](https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-06-27/doc-imizirav0797181.shtml#:~:text=%E6%8D%AE%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%EF%BC%8CIPG%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%A6%96%E5%B8%AD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E5%AE%B6%E6%9F%8F%E6%96%87%E5%96%9C%E8%A1%A8%E7%A4%BA%EF%BC%8C%E7%94%B1%E4%BA%8E%E5%86%85%E6%88%BF%E8%82%A1%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%8A%E9%83%BD%E4%BB%A5%E5%B0%8F%E7%BA%A2%E7%AD%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F%E5%9C%A8%E6%B8%AF%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%8C%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E5%80%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E5%80%BA%E4%B8%BB%E4%BD%93%E9%83%BD%E4%BD%8D%E4%BA%8E%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%8C%E6%8C%89%E7%85%A7%E5%8F%91%E5%80%BA%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%BE%80%E5%BE%80%E5%B7%B2%E8%A7%A6%E5%8F%91%E4%BA%86%20%E8%A2%AB%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%A1%E4%BB%B6%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E6%97%A0%E8%AE%BA%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%89%E8%AE%BC%EF%BC%8C%E8%A2%AB%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E6%88%96%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E6%9C%BA%E6%9E%84%E8%A3%81%E5%AE%9A%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A7%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85%E3%80%82%E4%B8%8D%E8%BF%87%E7%94%B1%E4%BA%8E%E8%BF%99%E4%BA%9B%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E5%92%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E9%83%BD%E9%9B%86%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%86%85%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%9C%AA%E5%BF%85%E8%83%BD%E5%A4%9F%E5%BE%97%E5%88%B0%E5%A2%83%E5%86%85%E6%B3%95%20%E9%99%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%B3%E8%AF%B7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%B8%80%E8%88%AC%E5%8F%AA%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%86%E7%BB%99%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E6%96%BD%E5%8E%8B%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%A5%E4%BF%83%E4%BD%BF%E5%85%B6%E5%81%9A%E5%87%BA%E5%AF%B9%E8%87%AA%E8%BA%AB%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%A6%A5%E5%8D%8F%E8%80%8C%E5%B7%B2%E3%80%82)。境外债权人实际回收仍取决于境内资产重整协调。 | （预期）如清盘，清盘人可接管万科地产香港公司及其持有资产（GLP股份等），总价值约9.5亿美元对应5.4亿美元债的**18%平均回收率**[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=bondholders%20could%20face%20recovery%20rates,without%20parent%20company%20repayment%20guarantees)。因维好协议在香港判例中难以直接索赔母公司[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=for%20approximately%20%24950%20million%20in,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)，境外清盘很难触及万科境内庞大资产。反之，如果通过谈判展期并维持公司经营，或许可等待政府或国企股东后续纾困机会，但也给其他债权人抢先获取优质资产的时间[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=leaving%20offshore%20investors%20with%20claims,secure%20valuable%20assets%20before%20other)[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=ball%20is%20in%20Vanke%E2%80%99s%20court,in%2Fgzfk7MPr)。 |

_表：恒大与万科在境外清盘路径上的结构异同。恒大的红筹结构使境外债直接以上市母公司为清盘对象，而万科境外债通过子公司发行并有维好协议分隔母公司责任。这导致恒大债权人在香港申请清盘具有法律上的直接性，而万科债权人若在港清盘，标的仅限境外子公司资产，母公司则相对隔离。_

## 万科债务结构与恒大的差异分析

万科目前的债务困境与恒大有诸多**结构性差异**：

* **境外债务结构**：恒大作为注册于开曼的上市主体，境外债多由恒大集团或附属离岸公司发行，恒大集团直接或间接承担偿债责任，无需维好协议。因此恒大境外债权人**法律上可以直接清盘恒大集团**，这也是Top Shine等能够在香港提请清盘的基础[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrandes-unit-receives-liquidation-order-hong-kong-court-2025-01-13/#:~:text=Evergrande%2C%20the%20world%27s%20most%20indebted,its%20%2423%20billion%20offshore%20debt)。相比之下，万科的美元债主要由\*\*Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) Co.\*\*发行，母公司提供“维好协议”（Keepwell Deed）作为一种信用支持[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=for%20approximately%20%24950%20million%20in,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)。维好协议承诺母公司“尽力维持”发行人偿债能力，但不构成法律上的债务担保[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=for%20approximately%20%24950%20million%20in,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)。香港终审法院在2025年3月的判例中明确指出，维好协议的性质类似“君子协定”，不直接给予债权人对母公司的可执行索赔权[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=for%20approximately%20%24950%20million%20in,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)[jonesday.com](https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2025/05/hong-kongs-highest-court-issues-ruling-on-keepwell-deeds#:~:text=The%20CFA%20rejected%20this,part%20of%20the%20BVI%20subsidiary)。这一法律差异意味着：**万科境外债权人若寻求清盘，只能针对发行主体香港子公司**，无法像恒大那样清盘母公司本身，从而对境内核心资产鞭长莫及。

* **资产隔离与抵押**：恒大集团通过红筹结构持有境内众多地产项目，但境外债权人对这些境内资产的变现权非常有限[finance.sina.com.cn](https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-06-27/doc-imizirav0797181.shtml#:~:text=%E6%8D%AE%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%EF%BC%8CIPG%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%A6%96%E5%B8%AD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E5%AE%B6%E6%9F%8F%E6%96%87%E5%96%9C%E8%A1%A8%E7%A4%BA%EF%BC%8C%E7%94%B1%E4%BA%8E%E5%86%85%E6%88%BF%E8%82%A1%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%8A%E9%83%BD%E4%BB%A5%E5%B0%8F%E7%BA%A2%E7%AD%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F%E5%9C%A8%E6%B8%AF%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%8C%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E5%80%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E5%80%BA%E4%B8%BB%E4%BD%93%E9%83%BD%E4%BD%8D%E4%BA%8E%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%8C%E6%8C%89%E7%85%A7%E5%8F%91%E5%80%BA%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%BE%80%E5%BE%80%E5%B7%B2%E8%A7%A6%E5%8F%91%E4%BA%86%20%E8%A2%AB%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%A1%E4%BB%B6%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E6%97%A0%E8%AE%BA%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%89%E8%AE%BC%EF%BC%8C%E8%A2%AB%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E6%88%96%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E6%9C%BA%E6%9E%84%E8%A3%81%E5%AE%9A%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A7%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85%E3%80%82%E4%B8%8D%E8%BF%87%E7%94%B1%E4%BA%8E%E8%BF%99%E4%BA%9B%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E5%92%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E9%83%BD%E9%9B%86%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%86%85%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%9C%AA%E5%BF%85%E8%83%BD%E5%A4%9F%E5%BE%97%E5%88%B0%E5%A2%83%E5%86%85%E6%B3%95%20%E9%99%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%B3%E8%AF%B7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%B8%80%E8%88%AC%E5%8F%AA%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%86%E7%BB%99%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E6%96%BD%E5%8E%8B%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%A5%E4%BF%83%E4%BD%BF%E5%85%B6%E5%81%9A%E5%87%BA%E5%AF%B9%E8%87%AA%E8%BA%AB%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%A6%A5%E5%8D%8F%E8%80%8C%E5%B7%B2%E3%80%82)。恒大案中，大部分境内资产已被内地债权人诉讼冻结或纳入破产重整，境外清盘人仅能控制极少数境外资产（如恒大物业和恒大汽车的股权等）[doc.irasia.com](https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/evergrande/announcement/ca250812.pdf#:~:text=Edwards%20%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%EF%BC%89%E5%B7%B2%E7%8D%B2%E5%A7%94%E4%BB%BB%E7%82%BA%E8%A9%B2%E5%85%A9%E9%96%93%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%EF%BC%9B%E5%8F%8A%20,29%20%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%89%E7%B4%84%E7%82%BA%20270%20%E5%84%84%E6%B8%AF%E5%85%83%EF%BC%8835%20%E5%84%84%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%EF%BC%89%E3%80%82%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%A4%E4%BA%BA%E7%8F%BE%E6%99%82%E7%84%A1%E6%B3%95%E4%BC%B0%E8%A8%88%E6%9C%80%E7%B5%82%E5%8F%AF%E5%BE%9E%E8%A9%B2%E7%AD%89%E5%AF%A6%E9%AB%94%E8%AE%8A%E7%8F%BE%E7%9A%84%E9%87%91%E9%A1%8D%E3%80%82)。**万科的境外发行人资产更加单一**：截至目前主要就是价值约21亿美元的GLP Holdings物流公司21%股权[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=bondholders%20could%20face%20recovery%20rates,provisions%2C%20these%20are)。但这部分股权已抵押了一笔12亿美元贷款，净剩余价值不到10亿美元[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=bondholders%20could%20face%20recovery%20rates,provisions%2C%20these%20are)。万科境外尚有约5.4亿美元无抵押债券和贷款，均将围绕这不到10亿美金的资产分配[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=bondholders%20could%20face%20recovery%20rates,without%20parent%20company%20repayment%20guarantees)。据估算，若按现状清盘，境外债权人平均回收率仅约18%[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=%242,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)。相比恒大境外债权人对境内资产基本束手无策，万科境外债权人\*\*至少有明确的境外资产池（GLP股权）\*\*可供追索，但规模远不足覆盖债务。这种资产隔离将迫使万科境外债权人权衡：是接受债务展期等待或争取母公司额外支持，还是立即清盘把仅有的境外资产变现止损。

* **维好协议的效力与风险**：维好条款虽非法律担保，却在债券发行时给予投资人一定心理安慰。但随着近年来类似案件判决（如北大方正案）澄清维好协议难以强制执行[jonesday.com](https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2025/05/hong-kongs-highest-court-issues-ruling-on-keepwell-deeds#:~:text=The%20CFA%20rejected%20this,part%20of%20the%20BVI%20subsidiary)，“维好不维权”已成为市场共识。换言之，**万科离岸债权人不能指望通过诉讼强制母公司履行维好承诺**[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=for%20approximately%20%24950%20million%20in,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)。唯一现实的法律手段是在违约后请求清盘发行人，从而冻结其资产并对抗其他债权人瓜分。[aastocks.com](https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489333/3#:~:text=It%20is%20understood%20that%20if,issuer%20of%20its%20USD%20bonds)[aastocks.com](https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489333/3#:~:text=Related%20News%20JPM%20Ratings%2C%20TPs,Short%20Selling%20Data%20as%20at)报道称，万科离岸债权人已聘请财务顾问准备谈判，并指出**唯有凭借清盘香港发行主体或执行维好条款才能获取谈判筹码**，但维好执行存在高度不确定性[aastocks.com](https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489333/3#:~:text=It%20is%20understood%20that%20if,issuer%20of%20its%20USD%20bonds)。这进一步提高了清盘作为施压手段的相对吸引力。

* **发行主体性质**：恒大是纯民营企业，境内外皆缺少政府背景“兜底”预期。而万科具备一定**国有背景**（深圳地铁持股近30%），过去市场曾视其为行业“最后堡垒”，相信有国家背景股东不至于让万科出现流动性危机[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=Vanke%20is%20about%2030,sliding%20into%20severe%20financial%20trouble)。然而本轮债务危机中，即便是万科这样的优质国企背景房企也陷入资金困局，说明政府**默许甚至鼓励市场出清劣质债务**的态度。事实上，迄今监管层并未直接出手救助任何特定房企，而是聚焦“保交楼”、维护购房者利益等公共目标[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)。因此万科的**政策溢价**有限，境外债权人无法寄望监管为维护万科声誉而干预其债务违约。一旦违约发生，万科在境外面临与恒大类似的市场化清算压力。

综上，恒大与万科在债务结构和法律架构上的差异，使得万科境外债权人所处形势更为严峻：他们缺乏对母公司直接求偿的抓手，又眼见境外仅存资产有限且随时可能被其他债权人主张。如果说恒大时期境外债权人还抱有通过冗长谈判等待“软着陆”的希望，那么万科案例中，由于**时间紧迫**（仅几日宽限期）和**结构掣肘**（维好不具强制力），境外债权人更可能选择迅速采取行动保护自身利益。

## 境外 vs 境内债权人的动机与约束

万科债务重组博弈中，境外债权人与境内债权人的动机策略呈现显著不同。这种分野源于监管环境、机构性质和利益目标的差异：

* **境内债权人：**以银行、信托、持有人为主，许多具官方背景或受监管严格约束。他们的行为遵循**“稳定压倒一切”的系统性顺从逻辑**。面对万科风险，境内债权人更倾向于在政府指导下通过展期、续贷等方式维护表面稳定，而不轻易触发法律清算程序。尤其对国有银行而言，贸然申请房企破产清算在政治上不可取，可能引发社会影响和问责。因此境内债权人多半选择与企业协商延期，而非主动申请法院清盘。同时，监管层近年反复强调“保交楼、保民生”，对房企金融债权人的诉求则相对次要[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)。在万科案例中，我们看到**境内2亿元债券需要90%持有人同意展期**才可避免违约，但首轮投票仅有23.3%支持展期方案，76.7%反对[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20proposal%20to%20postpone%20principal,reported%20the%20development%20on%20Saturday)。这一高反对比例实际上主要来自私募基金等非银投资者，很多大型银行持有人在政府协调下未明显阻挠。而投票规则设定高门槛也说明监管期望通过制度逼迫各方达成一致、避免违约。所以**境内债权人总体上受政策引导，倾向于延长债务期限以等待形势好转**，哪怕牺牲一定收益，也在所不惜。

* **境外债权人：**主要是国际投资基金、资产管理机构、海外银行等，目标纯粹是**利益最大化**。他们不受中国本土监管的人情因素束缚，也无维稳任务压力。在债务违约时，境外债权人考虑的是如何**尽快锁定和保全剩余资产**，以防继续拖延导致资产被他方耗尽或转移[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=leaving%20offshore%20investors%20with%20claims,secure%20valuable%20assets%20before%20other)。由于境外债通常无抵押，他们更依赖法律手段争夺偿付顺位。例如在恒大案中，小债权人Top Shine迅速行动就是典型——尽管其债权额很小，却率先申请清盘试图抢占先机[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%B3%95%E5%AE%98%E9%99%88%E9%9D%99%E8%8A%AC%E5%9C%A8%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%B4%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E8%B5%84%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%B5%E5%80%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%B6%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%8F%88%E7%BC%BA%E4%B9%8F%E8%B6%B3%E5%A4%9F%E8%BF%9B%E5%B1%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E3%80%82)。境外债权人的策略往往具备**高灵活性和突然性**：一旦判断谈判无望，可能在极短时间内启动法律程序，甚至不提前通知公司管理层，以防后者转移资产。在万科当前情形下，境外债券价格已跌至20美分附近，显示市场预期极低[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=reiterated%20a%20goal%20to%20stabilize,specific%20measures)。许多境外持有人（如Distressed债权基金）甚至做好最坏打算，通过法律清盘获取万科海外资产残值，再就维好协议对母公司提起诉讼或与政府博弈。这种\*\*“硬碰硬”的策略\*\*与境内债权人形成鲜明对比：后者选择观望和协商，前者倾向速战速决、依法止损。

* **政策与政治约束：**境内债权人明白政府态度是不救开发商、只稳大局[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)。因此他们配合展期安排，亦是响应监管号召，避免引爆更大风险。对于万科这类地方国企参股的房企，地方政府也会出面协调境内债权银行暂缓抽贷、支持展期。这种**政治干预**在境外基本缺席——境外债权人不会因“国企股东”就放弃自身权益。在恒大事件中，境外债权人多轮让步延期部分是对恒大反复承诺重组的尝试给予机会，但终局证明政府并未出手相救[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)，这些债权人的耐心最终耗尽。经过恒大等案例教训，万科境外债权人更加清楚政府立场，因此**不会再因政治期待而自我约束行动**。唯一可能影响的是声誉考虑：部分大型国际机构可能权衡与中国市场长期关系，不希望采取过激法律行动。但在逐利压力下，此种克制难敌现实利益。此外，本轮万科债务谈判窗口极短（首轮仅5个工作日宽限[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20rejection%20in%20a%20three,Financial%20Market%20Institutional%20Investors%20showed)），境外债权人几乎没有充足时间串联官方或等待政策变化。这与恒大案长达一年半的拉锯形成对比，后者期间一度有政策宽松预期和重组方案希望，境外债权人因而反复同意延期聆讯[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%B3%95%E5%AE%98%E9%99%88%E9%9D%99%E8%8A%AC%E5%9C%A8%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%B4%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E8%B5%84%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%B5%E5%80%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%B6%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%8F%88%E7%BC%BA%E4%B9%8F%E8%B6%B3%E5%A4%9F%E8%BF%9B%E5%B1%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E3%80%82)。而如今5日的紧迫期限下，“博弈最后阶段”的特征凸显，境外债权人更无意也无暇顾及政治面子问题，务实地以保全资产为首要目标。

### 境外债权人申请清盘动机权重分析

在万科境外债权人的决策中，各因素驱动强弱不同。下表对主要动机因素赋予权重，以衡量其推动境外债权人提早申请清盘的相对力度：

| **动机因素** | **权重（影响强度）** | **分析** |

| ---------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |

| **保全剩余资产价值** _(Preserve residual asset value)_ | ★★★★★ （极强） | 万科境外债权人深知境外可供偿债资产仅剩GLP股权约9.5亿美元。如果不及时行动，境内外其他债权人（如质押贷款银行）可能**优先处置**该资产[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=leaving%20offshore%20investors%20with%20claims,secure%20valuable%20assets%20before%20other)。清盘可冻结发行人资产，防止资产被提前瓜分，因而动力极强。 |

| **时间紧迫与机会窗口** _(Urgency of short timeframe)_ | ★★★★☆ （很强） | 首次展期谈判已失败，5个工作日宽限期极短[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20rejection%20in%20a%20three,Financial%20Market%20Institutional%20Investors%20showed)。境外债权人没有多轮谈判的奢侈，必须迅速决定策略。有限的时间倒逼他们选择**抢先申立清盘**，以免坐失先机。相比恒大多次延期，这次谈判时限的压力大大增强了提早行动的可能。 |

| **法律手段唯一性** _(Lack of alternatives to legal action)_ | ★★★★★ （极强） | 维好协议无法提供有效保障，协商展期又已受挫且无政府救助[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=for%20approximately%20%24950%20million%20in,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)。在可选方案中，只剩法律清盘能赋予债权人主动权和谈判筹码[aastocks.com](https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489333/3#:~:text=It%20is%20understood%20that%20if,issuer%20of%20its%20USD%20bonds)。因此法律手段的重要性空前上升，几乎成为唯一选项，推动力极强。 |

| **收益最大化动机** _(Profit-maximization motive)_ | ★★★★☆ （很强） | 境外债多为专业投资者持有，其职责即为客户追回最大价值。在重组不确定且可能严重摊薄回报的情况下，即刻清盘变现剩余资产、**锁定回收**成为理性的收益最大化选择。随着债券价格跌至20美分[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=reiterated%20a%20goal%20to%20stabilize,specific%20measures)，“止损”心理反而促使他们更倾向主动出击。 |

| **前车之鉴效应** _(Precedent effect from Evergrande)_ | ★★★☆☆ （中等） | 恒大历经漫长谈判仍难逃清盘，很多境外债权人教训惨痛，最终回收不理想。这一前例使万科的境外债权人更怀疑拖延的意义，增大了及早清盘的倾向。然而也有少数可能认为万科国企成分较高，或许还有**最后谈判价值**，因此该因素影响属中等。 |

| **政治及声誉考量** _(Political/reputation considerations)_ | ★★☆☆☆ （较弱） | 个别大型国际债权机构可能顾虑与中国的长期业务关系，不愿树立“强硬清盘”的负面形象。但在整体投资群体中，这种顾虑占比很小。绝大多数境外债权人更关注当下财务结果而非声誉。此外，中国政府已表明不直接介入开发商债务[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)，政治游说空间不大。因此此因素对总体决策影响有限。 |

_表：境外债权人提早申请清盘的动机权重分析。五星为驱动力极强，星级越低表示影响越弱。可以看出，保护有限资产、防止夜长梦多是最强驱动，而政策或声誉顾虑几乎不足以阻挡其行动。总体而言，万科境外债权人有更强激励在宽限期内采取主动清盘行动，以谋取自身最佳利益。_

## 有限期动态博弈模型：策略分析与均衡

万科债务重组可视为公司与境外债权人之间在**有限期限**内展开的动态博弈。双方博弈格局因时间有限（仅一轮展期谈判机会）而呈现“最后通牒”特征，可借助**有限期动态博弈模型**分析其策略选择与均衡结果。

**博弈参与方：**

* _甲方（Player A）_：境外债权人联盟（或其代理人）。策略集合：{**申请清盘（硬策略）**, **暂缓行动（软策略）**}。

* _乙方（Player B）_：万科公司管理层（含大股东）。策略集合：{**让步救济（如提供额外保障或部分偿付）**, **坚持原方案（无额外让步）**}。

**策略互动与支付：**

* 如果乙方坚持不额外让步，而甲方选择暂缓不清盘：则债务按原方案展期，甲方利益受损（拿到的仅是延迟兑付且无新增保障），乙方保全公司但信誉受损。这对甲方是劣 payoff，对乙方则是勉强胜利。考虑到甲方在首轮投票已否决无保障展期[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/#:~:text=The%20developer%27s%20first%20attempt%20to,opposing%20it)，此情形出现概率很低，不构成均衡。

* 如果乙方不让步，甲方申请清盘：则公司进入清算，甲方可立即分配境外资产（约回收18%[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=bondholders%20could%20face%20recovery%20rates,without%20parent%20company%20repayment%20guarantees)），乙方失去公司的继续经营价值。对甲方而言，这是确保获得**确定的止损收益**（虽然不高，但避免更坏结果）；对乙方则是最差结局（公司破产）。鉴于乙方策略直接引致清盘，乙方自然力避此结果。

* 如果乙方让步而甲方仍坚持清盘：乙方在宽限期内提出改良方案（如增加部分现金利息或资产抵押[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/#:~:text=,comes%20amid%20China%27s%20property%20crisis)[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/#:~:text=The%20developer%27s%20first%20attempt%20to,opposing%20it)），但甲方依旧不接受并提请清盘。这种情况下，乙方付出了额外代价却没有避免清算，属于最糟情形，甲方则可能在清盘中稍增回收（因乙方让渡的部分价值可能也纳入清算资产）。由于理性预期到甲方若打定主意清盘，乙方不会徒增让步，这一组合在理性博弈中不会发生。

* 如果乙方让步，甲方暂缓清盘：这是**双方合作**的局面。乙方通过增加偿付保障（例如拿出部分境外现金先行支付利息，或提供母公司担保/资产抵押等）来**提升债权人信心**，甲方接受改良方案，债务延期执行。这一结果下，甲方预期回收可能高于立即清盘18%的水平（取决于让步力度和公司未来偿付能力），乙方则保住公司避免破产。这种双赢相较清盘是帕累托改进。但其能否实现取决于乙方让步是否足够令甲方改变“清盘止损”策略。博弈进入最后阶段时，甲方的威胁具有高度可信度（承诺要清盘），乙方若有资源也会尽量拿出以换取时间。因此此情形是可能的，但是**乙方让步空间受到财务约束**——万科自身资金紧张，现金仅覆盖44%短债[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=extension%20on%20a%202%20billion,Consequently%2C%20offshore)，能提供的甜头有限。而甲方心态经恒大教训后更趋强硬，不易满足。

鉴于以上分析，博弈的**纳什均衡**很可能在“乙方不让步，甲方清盘”或“乙方小幅让步，甲方仍清盘”的强硬局面。特别是在有限期限博弈中，典型结论是**逆向归纳**导致最后阶段缺乏合作动力：各方皆知这是最后机会，理性债权人不会轻易让步，因为等待并无未来回报；同样公司如无外力介入，也难凭空提供令债权人满意的保障。这就像经典的“最后通牒博弈”：债权人以清盘相威胁要求尽可能多让步，而公司资源有限给不出，则僵局将以清盘告终。

然而，也存在一个**声誉考虑的渐进重复博弈**因素：万科过去在债市有良好声誉，从未违约，这次危机是首次考验。若公司管理层希望维护长期信誉，可能愿意在当前做出较大让步（例如引入国有股东提供第三方担保，或者出售部分资产兑付债务）来换取债权人不清盘，以保留未来融资能力。这类似在重复博弈中引入声誉：公司若在此轮表现出合作诚意，债权人或许给予一次机会，不立刻摧毁公司。但此种声誉策略需要可信行动支撑，而非空泛承诺。截至目前，万科仅提出延长宽限期到30天并追加约8.5百万美元利息的改良方案[nst.com.my](https://www.nst.com.my/property/2025/12/1339173/china-vanke-sweetens-bond-extension-proposal-avert-debt-default#:~:text=default%20www,with%20bondholders%20that%20will)[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/#:~:text=nation%27s%20crisis)[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/#:~:text=The%20developer%27s%20first%20attempt%20to,opposing%20it)。这对于2亿美元债务而言让步幅度有限，债权人是否买账尚难确定。若第二次投票（12月22日）再告失败，则博弈正式进入摊牌时刻。

总的来说，在**有限期博弈**框架下，理性的预期均衡偏向于境外债权人选择强硬策略及早清盘。除非万科能够在极短时间内拿出**远超预期的让步条件**，改变债权人即刻清盘的收益比较，否则均衡结果将对应于债权人行使权利、公司被清算的“激进均衡”。这也解释了当前离岸债权人比恒大案时**更有动力更早启动破产清算**：因为博弈已近末局，合作基础极其薄弱，各方倾向于保护自身而非成全对方。

## 贝叶斯证据更新：清盘申请后验概率估计

基于以上分析，我们可采用贝叶斯方法对“万科离岸债权人在宽限期内提出香港清盘申请”的概率进行动态更新评估。假定在未观察任何最新进展前，对此事件的先验概率为50%（即可能性一半对一半）。随着相关事实逐一出现，我们更新这一概率。关键证据及对概率的影响分析如下：

1. **证据1：首次展期谈判失败** – 万科请求将12月18日到期的2亿元债券展期一年的方案遭到债权人否决，76.7%的投票权反对无额外保障展期[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20proposal%20to%20postpone%20principal,reported%20the%20development%20on%20Saturday)。仅有附带一定增信措施的方案获得83.4%支持但未达90%门槛[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20proposal%20to%20postpone%20principal,reported%20the%20development%20on%20Saturday)。这一事实表明境内债权人内部协调遇阻，境外投资者尤为不满，**违约风险正式显性化**。在假设下，若境外债权人打算申请清盘，那么谈判破裂是高度可能观察到的结果；反之，若他们不准备走清盘路线，往往会推动通过展期避免违约。因此，此证据使得清盘申请概率大幅上升。我们将后验概率从50%提高到约 **80%**，反映债权人强硬态度明显增加了清盘动机[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=Dec%2014%20%28Reuters%29%20,hit%20property%20sector)[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20rejection%20in%20a%20three,Financial%20Market%20Institutional%20Investors%20showed)。

2. **证据2：宽限期仅5个工作日** – 根据投票结果公告，万科仅获得5个工作日宽限期（至12月22日）来筹措支付或再次协商[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20rejection%20in%20a%20three,Financial%20Market%20Institutional%20Investors%20showed)。这个极短的窗口意味着债权人留给公司的时间非常有限，博弈进入最后阶段。相比恒大动辄数月的延期，5日宽限凸显局势紧迫，对债权人而言，**迅速行动的收益更高**。若他们打算申请清盘，不会等待太久。因此短宽限期进一步提高了清盘及时发生的可能性。我们将概率略上调至 **85%**，表示时间压力对债权人采取激进行动有显著助推作用[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20rejection%20in%20a%20three,Financial%20Market%20Institutional%20Investors%20showed)。

3. **证据3：政府未显示救援意图** – 时至12月中，中央及地方政府并无针对万科的特殊纾困措施出台。相反，监管层反复强调“救市不救企”，不搞大水漫灌[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)。“市场化出清”已成为共识，许多问题房企甚至国企背景的华南城也在香港被清盘[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/delisting-once-loved-evergrande-closes-tumultuous-chapter-investors-2025-08-22/#:~:text=liquidity%20squeeze%20and%20a%20lack,homebuyer%20demand%2C%20analysts%20have%20said)。对于债权人来说，没有政府托底意味着**万科一旦违约别无他救**，只能靠法律途径保障自身。这一信息使清盘申请看似更不可避免。我们因此将后验概率进一步提升至 **95%** 以上，接近于认为清盘申请几乎确定会发生[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)。因为除非出现意外转机（如最后关头政府默许国企股东增资稳债），否则境外债权人没有留下万科的动机。

结合上述更新过程，我们得到在2025年12月17日时**万科境外债权人在宽限期内提出香港清盘申请的后验概率约为95%**，即极高的发生可能。这反映了目前所有迹象均指向境外债权人不会坐视万科债务违约而拖延，在已有一次谈判失败、时间所剩无几、且缺乏外部救援的情况下，他们有强烈意愿通过法律手段迅速冻结和处置资产，以保障自身利益。

![]()_图：贝叶斯更新下，每条新证据出现后“境外债权人将在宽限期内申请清盘”的概率变化曲线（纵轴为后验概率）。起初先验假设为50%。首次谈判失败使概率跃升至\~80%；宽限期仅5日稍增至\~85%；确认政府无意救助进一步推高至约95%。可以看出，证据不断累积使债权人可能采取清盘行动的概率大幅上升。最终后验概率接近确定，这与前述博弈和动机分析所得结论一致，即境外债权人极有可能选择在宽限期结束前启动对万科的清盘申请程序。_[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20rejection%20in%20a%20three,Financial%20Market%20Institutional%20Investors%20showed)[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)

**参考文献：**

1. 【每日经济新闻】香港高院受理恒大清盘呈请及清盘影响解读[finance.sina.com.cn](https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-06-27/doc-imizirav0797181.shtml#:~:text=%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E7%BD%91%E7%AB%99%E6%98%BE%E7%A4%BA%EF%BC%8CTop%20Shine%20Global%20Limited%20of,Intershore%20Consult%EF%BC%88Samoa%EF%BC%89Limited%E5%B0%86%E5%87%86%E5%A4%87%E5%AF%B9%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E5%91%88%E8%AF%B7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%EF%BC%8C%E6%A1%88%E4%BB%B6%E7%BC%96%E5%8F%B7%E4%B8%BAHCCW%20220%2F2022%EF%BC%8C%E6%AD%A4%E5%91%88%E8%AF%B7%E6%A1%88%E5%B0%86%E4%BA%8E2022%E5%B9%B48%E6%9C%8831%E6%97%A5%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%889%E7%82%B930%E5%88%86%E8%BF%9B%E8%A1%8C%E3%80%82)[finance.sina.com.cn](https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-06-27/doc-imizirav0797181.shtml#:~:text=%E6%8D%AE%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%EF%BC%8CIPG%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%A6%96%E5%B8%AD%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E5%AE%B6%E6%9F%8F%E6%96%87%E5%96%9C%E8%A1%A8%E7%A4%BA%EF%BC%8C%E7%94%B1%E4%BA%8E%E5%86%85%E6%88%BF%E8%82%A1%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E4%B8%8A%E9%83%BD%E4%BB%A5%E5%B0%8F%E7%BA%A2%E7%AD%B9%E7%9A%84%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F%E5%9C%A8%E6%B8%AF%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%8C%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E5%80%BA%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%91%E5%80%BA%E4%B8%BB%E4%BD%93%E9%83%BD%E4%BD%8D%E4%BA%8E%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%EF%BC%8C%E6%8C%89%E7%85%A7%E5%8F%91%E5%80%BA%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E7%9A%84%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E5%BE%80%E5%BE%80%E5%B7%B2%E8%A7%A6%E5%8F%91%E4%BA%86%20%E8%A2%AB%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E7%9A%84%E6%9D%A1%E4%BB%B6%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E6%97%A0%E8%AE%BA%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%89%E8%AE%BC%EF%BC%8C%E8%A2%AB%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E6%88%96%E4%BB%B2%E8%A3%81%E6%9C%BA%E6%9E%84%E8%A3%81%E5%AE%9A%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E6%98%AF%E5%A4%A7%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85%E3%80%82%E4%B8%8D%E8%BF%87%E7%94%B1%E4%BA%8E%E8%BF%99%E4%BA%9B%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%9A%84%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E5%92%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%8A%A1%E9%83%BD%E9%9B%86%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%86%85%EF%BC%8C%E5%A2%83%E5%A4%96%E7%9A%84%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%9C%AA%E5%BF%85%E8%83%BD%E5%A4%9F%E5%BE%97%E5%88%B0%E5%A2%83%E5%86%85%E6%B3%95%20%E9%99%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%B3%E8%AF%B7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%B8%80%E8%88%AC%E5%8F%AA%E6%98%AF%E4%B8%BA%E4%BA%86%E7%BB%99%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E6%96%BD%E5%8E%8B%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%A5%E4%BF%83%E4%BD%BF%E5%85%B6%E5%81%9A%E5%87%BA%E5%AF%B9%E8%87%AA%E8%BA%AB%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%A6%A5%E5%8D%8F%E8%80%8C%E5%B7%B2%E3%80%82)

2. 【澎湃新闻】恒大清盘聆讯多次延期及境外债权人支持函详情[m.thepaper.cn](https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19764413#:~:text=9%E6%9C%885%E6%97%A5%E5%8D%88%E9%97%B4%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%EF%BC%8803333,Samoa%29%20Limited%EF%BC%88%E4%BD%B3%E7%9B%9B%E7%8E%AF%E7%90%83%EF%BC%89%E5%9C%A82022%E5%B9%B46%E6%9C%8827%E6%97%A5%E5%90%91%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E6%8F%90%E5%87%BA%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E5%91%88%E8%AF%B7%E5%85%AC%E5%91%8A%EF%BC%8C%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E5%9C%A82022%E5%B9%B49%E6%9C%885%E6%97%A5%E6%89%B9%E5%87%86%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E5%BB%B6%E6%9C%9F%E7%94%B3%E8%AF%B7%EF%BC%8C%E8%AF%A5%E5%91%88%E8%AF%B7%E7%9A%84%E8%81%86%E8%AE%AF%E5%B0%86%E5%BB%B6%E8%87%B32022%E5%B9%B411%E6%9C%887%E6%97%A5%E3%80%82)[m.thepaper.cn](https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19764413#:~:text=%E5%B0%86%E5%B0%BD%E5%BF%AB%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AA%E5%B0%8A%E9%87%8D%E6%89%80%E6%9C%89%E5%88%A9%E7%9B%8A%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E8%80%85%E6%9D%83%E5%88%A9%E7%9A%84%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E3%80%82)

3. 【中央广播电视总台】2024年1月29日香港法院正式下令恒大清盘[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%89%93%E5%8D%B0)[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/hk-court-orders-liquidation-of-china-evergrande-20240129/7461229.html#:~:text=%E6%B3%95%E5%AE%98%E9%99%88%E9%9D%99%E8%8A%AC%E5%9C%A8%E8%A3%81%E5%86%B3%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%B4%EF%BC%8C%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2%E8%B5%84%E4%B8%8D%E6%8A%B5%E5%80%BA%EF%BC%8C%E5%85%B6%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%8F%88%E7%BC%BA%E4%B9%8F%E8%B6%B3%E5%A4%9F%E8%BF%9B%E5%B1%95%EF%BC%8C%E5%9B%A0%E6%AD%A4%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E3%80%82)

4. 【维基百科】恒大债务危机大事记及清盘过程综述[zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%82%B5%E5%8B%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F#:~:text=%5D%E3%80%82%E8%87%B310%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E5%B0%86%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E8%81%86%E8%AE%AF%E6%8A%BC%E5%90%8E%E8%87%B3%E5%90%8C%E5%B9%B412%E6%9C%884%E6%97%A5%E4%B8%BE%E8%A1%8C%EF%BC%8C%E5%B9%B6%E6%8C%87%E8%BF%99%E6%98%AF%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E4%B8%80%E6%AC%A1%E6%8A%BC%E5%90%8E%EF%BC%8C%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%A8%E6%AD%A4%E6%9C%9F%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%8E%E5%80%BA%E6%9D%83%E4%BA%BA%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E9%87%8D%E7%BB%84%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE)[zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%82%B5%E5%8B%99%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F#:~:text=match%20at%20L536%202024%E5%B9%B41%E6%9C%8829%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%AB%98%E7%AD%89%E6%B3%95%E9%99%A2%E6%AD%A3%E5%BC%8F%E5%AF%B9%E6%81%92%E5%A4%A7%E4%B8%8B%E8%BE%BE%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98%E4%BB%A4,160%20%5D%E3%80%82)

5. 【LinkedIn-Daniel Israel】万科债务危机分析：境外债结构、GLP股权及回收率测算[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=bondholders%20could%20face%20recovery%20rates,without%20parent%20company%20repayment%20guarantees)[linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/israeldaniel_china-vankes-endgame-the-bad-and-the-very-activity-7402709374101516288-o5KB#:~:text=for%20approximately%20%24950%20million%20in,some%20recovery%20based%20on%20subordination)

6. 【路透社】万科债券持有人拒绝展期请求，违约风险上升[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=Dec%2014%20%28Reuters%29%20,hit%20property%20sector)[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-get-bondholder-backing-payment-extension-sources-say-2025-12-13/#:~:text=The%20rejection%20in%20a%20three,Financial%20Market%20Institutional%20Investors%20showed)

7. 【路透社】万科提议延长宽限期及增加利息以避免违约的最新进展[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/#:~:text=nation%27s%20crisis)[reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/#:~:text=The%20developer%27s%20first%20attempt%20to,opposing%20it)

8. 【美国之音】谢国忠访谈：中国政府不会救开发商，只保障民生稳定[voachinese.com](https://www.voachinese.com/a/economist-andy-xie-china-s-way-of-handling-property-bubble-might-20230825/7241755.html#:~:text=VOA%EF%BC%9A%E8%BF%99%E6%AC%A1%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E6%95%91%E5%8A%A9%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E5%95%86%EF%BC%9F)

9. 【AASTOCKS】万科境外债权人寻求顾问协商，维好协议执行不确定的信息[aastocks.com](https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489333/3#:~:text=It%20is%20understood%20that%20if,issuer%20of%20its%20USD%20bonds)[aastocks.com](https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1489333/3#:~:text=Related%20News%20JPM%20Ratings%2C%20TPs,Short%20Selling%20Data%20as%20at)

10. 【Jones Day】香港终审法院关于维好协议可执行性的判例解析[jonesday.com](https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2025/05/hong-kongs-highest-court-issues-ruling-on-keepwell-deeds#:~:text=The%20CFA%20rejected%20this,part%20of%20the%20BVI%20subsidiary)