That's the problem I tried to solve with my "Maximum Ignorance Probability".
fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/… (https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/09/07/estimating-medical-error-rate-an-intuitive-max-entropy-method/)
nitter.moomoo.me/ccanonne\_/status/1645987259672588288#m (https://nitter.moomoo.me/ccanonne_/status/1645987259672588288#m)
https://nitter.moomoo.me/nntaleb/status/1646025962088198144#m