Saw this image making the rounds so I did some digging...

Samuel Benner was a prosperous farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic. When he try to discern the causes of fluctuations in markets, he came across a large degree of cyclicality.

Benner eventually published his findings in a book in 1875 — BENNERS PROPHECIES: FUTURE UPS AND DOWNS IN PRICEs — making business and commodity price forecasts for 1876 -1904. Many (but not all) of these forecasts were fairly accurate.

The Benner Cycle includes:

- an 11 year cycle in corn and pig prices with peaks alternating every 5 and 6 years.

- cotton prices which moved in a cycle with peaks every 11 years.

- a 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 11, 9, 7 years & peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years

Certainly worth thinking about as a general long term framework — and a reminder that the so-called 100 year floods comes along much more frequently than the name implies.

Via https://ritholtz.com/2010/08/the-56-year-benner-cycle/ (2010 article)