Subnostr

This rant is long, and framed hopefully more for normies aka precoiners (plus shitcoiners who are yet to enter recovery):

According to my napkin math m, there’s currently ~$142,300,000 (though to account for the famous volatility of bitcoin, multiply your wildest potential prices of one coin by ~₿5,537.08) locked in Lightning. It’s not really “locked” though, since channels can be closed at any time.

That’s not very much if we’re talking about THE world reserve currency’s primary payment network (important to note LN isn’t the *only* one), but considering that’s not yet the context, it’s a solid start.

Also importantly, the Lightning Network is extremely liquid as in funds can be transferred between parties super fast and cheap. So any comparison to something like the Visa Network in terms of net value “settled” is arguably irrelevant.

I’m retarded but I don’t believe we necessarily know the total value settled by lightning on any particular cadence (per day etc.) especially considering that private channels exist.

I may also be crazy because, here me out - what if scarcity continues to be important 😲 and adoption continues to grow 😲 causing the price per bitcoin to continue to go up, on average, a lot 😲😲😲

Bitcoin is absolute digital scarcity, this cannot be overstated (if this doesn’t blow your mind, read some Knut Svanholm). This is also why shitcoins are shitcoins.

This means that modest fraction of a billion dollars on LN today would turn billions (>$1.6B at 300k) and eventually trillions. Not to mention a lot more bitcoin, again meaning exponentially more dollar value equivalent, would be brought into this rapid liquidity pool of global payment capacity.

I have no idea how many 2.1 quadrillionths of all the value in the world would need to be committed on-chain to multisig contracts for payment liquidity (as opposed to savings aka cold storage) to make the world go ‘round, but there’s certainly enough and that will naturally work itself out. Not to mention opendime-like “sneakernet” potential where you can skip all of that multiple times without even touching the timechain or miner fees.

I’m just gonna wrap this one up. My timing with these rants is the worst and no one sees them anyway 🤦‍♂️. I totally get that there are reasons to be skeptical of these lofty and non-data-based claims on multiple levels, and i feel you.

But gfy, it’s happening regardless of your opinion - so we all get to decide for ourselves whether we want to find a way to either Have Fun Stacking Sats or #HFSP. So keep stacking and for the love of god don’t shitcoin you dumb fuck 🫡

ringo 2y ago

that was interesting and here is my main thought about it:

the thing is, as best as i currently understand, bitcoin only goes up for two reasons:

people buy more of it, or, there's an increased demand for it.

but my main problems with this, are as follows

- cbdc is emminent, and when that occurs it will change a lot. stay with me a sec.

- when people globally "hypothetically" want to use bitcoin, but cant get any, how does that help any of them? are we hypothesizing that the entire world, is just going to use whatever liuidity is in the lightning network. and adjust the price of everything, based on an ever changing metric of how many scraps are in the digital bucket?

-are we to assume that bitcoin will only be valuable because if the holders of it are the only ones who can get it, in a post cbdc economy, this somehow makes the people holding it more useful, or more valuable somehow?

-on the last point, i would argue that it doesn't make those people more useful, primarily because human nature is such that people are greedy, and only self serving, MOSTLY and by most i mean about 90% of the global population. so you have people who cannot afford to buy food, because they are having cbdc, and their money got turned off, expired, or they went outside of their 15 minute city, or they lost too many social credit points , or what have you. and they need bitcoin to buy food and pay rent? how is this fair or even possibly imaginable, in anyones wildest dreams? it simply wouldn't take. they'd be rioting in the streets, for bitcoin to increase the market cap, so they could have a chance at having some money. even with all the halving, which just eventually brings it mathematically close to error divide by zero, there still wouldn't be enough to satisfy global liquidity needs, based on how people currently live.

where i'm going with this, is while bitcoin is a nice idea, and has a lot of cool things about it, i dont think in my wildest dreams as its presently configured, that it would *ever* satisfy the requirements for a global currency.

not today, not tomorrow, not next year. simply put, never.

and i do realize most of the things i mentioned above are largely left -out- of all the popular hype and books and stuff, unless i've missed these details.

thoughts welcome.

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Discussion

no₿ody™ 🧱 2y ago

It seems like your thoughts pretty much all spin off of assumptions about governments and their CBDC’s that i don’t share, so it doesn’t make sense or feel worth it to get into detail about all that. However, I greatly appreciate you not only taking the time to read that bullshit but also writing out such a long and clearly genuine response.

I do respect where you’re coming from and perhaps you’re right, but for the way I see the world, it always comes back to extreme bullishness for Bitcoin and its adoption amidst the increasingly apparent scam called Fiat

In other words, respectfully, am satisfied with the ending i went with on this one.

Good news is even though at least one of us must be wrong, we’re acting as we see fit given the information we’ve processed. I’ll do my best to keep an open mind for achilles heels in my perspective and hope that you do too.

ringo 2y ago

You're kindly welcome. I relish an intelligent conversation. Most people cannot be bothered.

It will be interesting to see what comes of all this stuff, and no disrespect taken or implied untowards myself, by anything you said. Not to worry.

I don't know what's going to happen, and yes also keep an open mind. Just presenting some probabalistic counter points, and certainly not looking to argue. :-)

Cheers.