You are correct. Bitcoin needs to go “up” enough to protect you from monetary debasement. The big gains that come from adoption are nice but not necessarily.

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Right. So NgU is really Dollar go down but with an adoption curve...

The adoption curve though is not number of users, but number of other currency units invested... So if one user adopts $1 of Bitcoin, and one other user adopts $1B of Bitcoin, these are weighted differently.