Lyn Alden often discusses fiscal dominance versus monetary dominance in the context of how economic policy is primarily driven.
Fiscal dominance (1 on your scale): The government runs large deficits, and central banks must accommodate by keeping interest rates low or buying government debt (essentially printing money). This leads to inflation and debt monetization.
Monetary dominance (10 on your scale): Central banks have control, focusing on inflation targeting and price stability, even if it means restricting the economy and tightening liquidity.
Right now, we're closer to fiscal dominance, probably around a 3 or 4 on your scale. The U.S. government is running large deficits, and despite the Fed tightening, real rates aren't fully reining in spending. If inflation remains persistent and rates stay lower than inflation, we could drift further toward 1 (full-on fiscal dominance). If the Fed regains control and enforces strict monetary policy (like Volcker in the 80s), we’d move back toward monetary dominance (closer to 10).
Right now, deficits and government spending seem to be setting the tone more than central banks.
