Replying to Avatar Dug

GA nostriches, Working on a revision to a paper and given I mention something that happened in the 80’s thought I’d see what happened in the 70’s and from the House of Lords library, found this part, and wondered how Britain’s current situation stacks up against it…..

3. Fiscal situation and the IMF bailout

The Labour Party returned to government in February 1974 (July 2024), just as the economy started to contract and inflation accelerated (was sort of stable/shit). It increased government spending sharply, in an attempt to mitigate the impact of the stagflation crisis on both industry and households (pay off junior doctors in the summer before riots broke out). In 1973/74, government spending as a share of GDP was 40.3%, before rising to 44.7% in 1974/75 and 46.5% in 1975/76 (44.4% in 2024 heading for the moon). Taxation did increase from the level it had been reduced to in 1972/73, but not enough to compensate for this (tax revenues are falling following increase of NI that came in, in April 2025). The public sector deficit therefore widened to 5.7% of GDP in 1974/75 and then to 6.3% of GDP in 1975/76, the highest it had been since 1946/47 (analysts suggest deficit could reach 5% by the end of 2025, I say don’t believe the numbers, there is no stopping this train). This increase in borrowing, combined with contracting GDP, saw the government’s debt to GDP ratio increase between 1973/74 (45.2%) and 1975/76 (49.3%), breaking a quarter-century long spell of annual reductions (In 2025, this figure is projected to be 96.9%, but 100% is in sight).

So peeps, when people throw around talk of an IMF bailout, I wouldn’t worry so much, there are other countries that may need failing out first as yields increase, and anyway, very much doubt the IMF will have enough money to do this, last time the bail out was about £2.3 billion, that’s about 10 days worth of interest payments.

Hyperinflation is coming, read #mandibles, stack bitcoin, manage your opsec and privacy. They will come hunting for anything they can get, if you’re in the public sector, prepare yourself and best not buy a second home (Angie R.).

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The more you look into the 70’s the more similarities that appear with today…… but this is from Jan2025, this have progressed since the then…..

“Rachel Reeves aims to stimulate growth, albeit through government spending rather than tax cuts. It is now clear that markets are rejecting this approach as well. The reality is that increased borrowing—regardless of the purpose—is no longer acceptable to the bond market.

We have been here before. In 1972, the then-Conservative government launched a “spend for growth” strategy, which resulted in inflation, a falling pound, and rising bond yields (quick boom then bust). This strategy contributed to the Conservatives losing the following general election, leaving the new Labour government to inherit the crisis. Ultimately, in 1976, James Callaghan was forced to call in the IMF, resulting in drastic austerity measures that stabilized the situation.”

Looking at the current state of things, enforced austerity could be the only long term out.

https://www.woodhillam.co.uk/real-time-watch/shades-of-the-1976-imf-bailout-surrounding-the-uk-at-present/

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If and it's a big if, we get an IMF bailout it will come with hige conditions.

Austerity, a return to regulatory equality with the EU, the money will be in the form off a CBDC and the introduction of Digital ID.

Worrying times.

HUGE conditions….. prepping a note related to this, stack sats (quietly), they’ll be our only hope. Also, France could be ahead of us in the queue!!!!

I have yet to find a good non-kyc platform in the UK.. next step is to get my stack into cold storage... 👍🏻

Since the ATMs were removed, it’s tricky, but at the very least if there are a couple of hops between the exchange and your wallet, at least they can’t see your stack (maybe throw in a coin join).