Not great in the near term. The combination of the Fed doing QT, the Treasury shifting towards longer-duration bond issuance, and China running tight fiscal policy, are all liquidity negative.
I think we grind for a while until something snaps in the Treasury market or something adjacent, and then we do the next leg up in liquidity.
Liquidity bottomed back in Oct 2022 right after 1) the UK bond market outright broke and 2) the US bond market was really wobbly (bad liquidity, high volatility). That was fixed by the Treasury draining its cash account and shortening the duration of its bond issuance.
why do long duration bonds hurt liquidity more than short duration bonds?
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Money market funds can’t purchase long bonds so the money that buys duration often comes from reserves that people are holding in banks
Yes, this.
