I'm no expert, and live in US so can't legally use it, but will US make attack before X date was a thing for a while. And you could toggle date to 1 week from now, end of month, end of July. I watched when the trump pistnother day came out how it shot up to close to 100% yes quickly, but if these pizza posts are even more leading indicator that could be useful

Here’s an example: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july?tid=1750733507771

It would be nice to have something like this via Nostr, with payments over Lightning (LND).