🤑 Raoul Pal expects the altcoin supercycle to begin in 2026.

Why there isn’t an altseason now

• All the chatter that “alt-season is dead” is noise. The market moves with the business cycle.

• When the cycle is weak, risk-taking shrinks. As the cycle strengthens and profits rise, capital moves deeper into risk, toward altcoins.

• Donald Trump and Scott Bessent are priming the market for a flood of liquidity.

• Even Trump’s proposed tax bill could unleash up to $1.5 trillion of fresh money into the banking system.

Bitcoin as a macro asset

• BTC tracks global liquidity about 90% of the time.

• NASDAQ shows an even stronger link to money printing.

• Bitcoin isn’t an “uncorrelated asset”; it’s one of the most macro-sensitive assets.

• The current BTC price already factors in a recession that may not happen.

Big macro game

• The main driver is currency depreciation driven by a steady rise in liquidity.

• About 8% per year is the minimum profitability threshold beyond which capital loses purchasing power.

• Governments print money to service debts. This is a systemic, ongoing process.

Liquidity and the business cycle

• Since 2008, the business cycle has become more predictable due to debt repayment structures.

• The cycle lengthened from about 4 years to roughly 5–5.5 years after debt-term extensions in 2022.

• The next major liquidity surge has shifted to 2026.

Main conclusion

• Crypto’s current softness is a temporary mismatch between price and macro backdrop caused by liquidity constraints.

• Crypto is the most liquidity-sensitive asset class.

• The main phase of the cycle and the “banana zone” are still ahead.

• This is a long macro-cycle game, and patience is a key asset.

Raoul Pal

• One of the world’s most influential macro analysts, ex-Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, and Real Vision co-founder.

• Coined the concept of “banana zones” in crypto—phases of rapid growth tied to liquidity cycles.

Full speech: link

Previously:

- CZ expects a supercycle

- Bitcoin resembles Google in 2017

- Opinion on the BTC correction

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