Yeah... I think the black market aspect would likely be true, but I think it would end up how you described, total organizational chaos that's more harm than good.

Are you certain that the USA would be the main dominant force in this bleak future though? Is their level of control and reach just that great that people would just roll over and let them have it? I agree that's what seems likely, it just makes me sad.

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I am not sure, nothing is certain in this life, but it definitely looks like it. I ain't touching #BTC with a stick from now on, of that I am sure.

Do you have any alternatives you trust? Just good ole gold and silver?

That's about it, yes.

Some monero is a "nice to have", but don't just go crazy about anything digital

I believe it to be only a matter of time for all non compliant devs to be thrown in prison. That goes for Monero and Nostr too. And relay operators...