Notion is at risk of being the next Evernote. A $10B valuation implies it needs to be doing $1B in annual revenue at some point. So they’re going to bloat the product and branch out seeking ways to 10x revenue.

This will open the door to a simpler, more focused competitor and they’ll start bleeding users. Eventually there’ll be a down round or acquisition at way less than $10B and the cycle starts over.