Agree with the first part. Not entirely convinced that the superficial inflation rates will have as large—or any—impact on the value increase of Bitcoin. I mean, that's what the halvings are meant to suppress in the first place.
Discussion
I don't mean consumer price deflation, I mean monetary deflation. Money being destroyed, as companies and people go bankrupt and debt gets written off.
Then the Fed will perhaps respond with a rate cut, and then monetary inflation can kick off again and some of that newly-issued credit can go into Bitcoin.
As far as I know, Bitcoin (like all hard assets) has a price reflecting monetary inflation.
You're probably right for the most part, but honestly, this isn't something that is worth speculating, in my opinion. The halvings have always played a monumental role in Bitcoin's price increases, and everyone has always gotten it wrong for the past 15 years. Also, there are far too many other factors to consider. 🤷♂️🙄
The halving is just the method used to steadily decrease emission and you can see it coming from a mile away. Investors usually trade in advance of an occasion.
The ETF and the halving aren't like war breaking out, suddenly. They're not surprises.
I wasn't trying to suggest that it is like a war breaking out. I've been aware of all this. What's your point?
That the ETF and the halving could be predicted and are already priced in.
There were just some algos playing the launch, but the SEC "accidentally" wiped them out with the pre-launch fake-out.
Yea, that was hilarious. 🙄🤣 Honestly, I haven't looked too much into the ETFs. Which exchanges are backing them? Coinbase?
I think so.
Question: if you had to guess, how long do you think they'll resume with the rate cuts?
I don't know. They usually like to start cutting in the spring. March, maybe?
The halving is never priced in.