Despite appeals from senior officials in both Israel and the United States — including a direct request from U.S. President Donald J. Trump — Polymarket bettors remain doubtful that Israeli President Isaac Herzog will grant Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a pardon anytime soon. The market currently gives just a 28% chance that a pardon will be issued before the end of February.

In the past 24 hours, Netanyahu formally requested a pardon for the first time, submitting a public letter to Herzog addressing three separate investigations involving bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.