BTC Analysis (March 11, 2025) - 15m TF
$OKX:BTCUSDT
**Overview:**
Bitcoin (BTC) on the 15m TF shows an attempt to rebound after the sharp decline on March 10th. However, this rebound *lacks strength* and remains under pressure from key resistance levels. This analysis will focus on the 15m TF to find suitable Day Trade strategies for the current situation.
**Technical Analysis (15m):**
* **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):**
* The price has rebounded from near the psychological support level of $60,000.
* However, this rebound has *not yet* created a clear Higher High (HH). It still appears to be a rebound within a downtrend.
* There are *no* signs of Smart Money reversal (such as volume accumulation at support).
* **ICT Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:**
* *Buyside Liquidity (Resistance):*
* $68,000 (Key resistance - EMA 50 and previous support area).
* $69,000 - $70,000 (Resistance zone).
* *Sellside Liquidity (Support):*
* $64,000
* $62,000 (Recent Low)
* $60,000 (Psychological support)
* **Money Flow:**
* Money Flow has *turned slightly positive*. This is a good sign (bullish divergence), *but it needs confirmation*. Positive Money Flow while the price has not made a Higher High suggests some buying pressure, but not yet strong enough to change the trend.
* **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):**
* EMA 50 (yellow) is still *below* EMA 200 (white).
* The current price is attempting to test the EMA 50. *A strong breakout above the EMA 50 would be a more positive sign*.
* **Trend Strength:**
* The cloud is still *red* (Bearish), but it's starting to *thin*.
* There is a *Neutral* signal.
* *Conclusion:* The main trend is still down, but there are signs of the downtrend weakening.
* **Chart Pattern:**
* *No clear* chart patterns indicating a bullish reversal have been found.
* There might be a Double Bottom forming (if the price doesn't make a new low and breaks out above $68,000), but it's too early to conclude.
**Day Trade Strategy:**
* **Situation:** High market volatility. The rebound is not strong. The main trend is still down.
* **Main Strategy: Short Selling (still the primary strategy, but with increased caution):**
1. **Wait for Rebound:** Wait for the price to rebound closer to key resistance levels ($68,000 or the EMA 50).
2. **Look for Bearish Signals:** Observe Price Action at the resistance. Look for Bearish signals such as Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star, or the price failing to breakout above the EMA 50.
3. **Enter Short:** When there is a clear Bearish signal.
4. **Stop Loss:** *Strictly above* the most recent Swing High of the Rebound.
5. **Take Profit:** The next support levels ($64,000, $62,000, or $60,000).
* **Alternative Strategy: Long (Buy) (Very High Risk):**
1. *It is not recommended to go Long until there is a clear reversal signal.*
2. If the price breaks out above $68,000 *with strong momentum* (and high volume), you *may* consider a Long, *but you must Stop Loss immediately if the price drops back below $68,000*.
3. **Stop Loss:** Below $68,000
4. **Take Profit:** $69,000 - $70,000
* **SMC Setup (Focus on Short):**
1. Identify a clear Resistance Zone (e.g., $68,000).
2. Wait for the price to Pullback (rebound) to test the Resistance Zone.
3. Observe Price Action at the Resistance Zone. Look for Bearish Reversal signals (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star).
4. When there is a Bearish Reversal signal, enter Short.
5. Set a Stop Loss above the most recent Swing High.
6. Set a Take Profit at the next support level.
**Important Considerations:**
* **Volatility:** Remains very high.
* **False Breakouts:** Beware of false breakouts (both up and down).
* **Dead Cat Bounce:** The rebound may be just a Dead Cat Bounce.
* **News:** Monitor the news.
* **Risk Management:** The most important thing. Always use Stop Losses.
**Conclusion:**
BTC on the 15m TF is attempting a rebound, but there are no strong reversal signals yet. The main trend remains down. Day Traders should primarily focus on Short Selling, but with extreme caution and strict Stop Losses. Going Long (Buy) is very high risk and should only be done with very clear reversal signals.
**Disclaimer:** This analysis is a personal opinion and not investment advice. Investors should do their own research and make decisions carefully.