I shared this thread on the other app bc it’s very important to understand the basics of bonds to understand what happened this weekend, and to understand what happens in the financial system in general. If you don’t understand these basics then you’re missing out.

What are Bonds?

Think about bonds as “fixed income.” You literally loan money to the government to receive a fixed amount of income every year.

So if you loan $100 to the govt at a yield (coupon rate) of 10% then what’s fixed (the coupon) is the $10 a year that the govt pays you. That’s a fixed stream, every year the govt is paying you $10.

Now if the “free” market decides that 10% is too high, and you want to sell your bond in an auction let’s say you can sell your bond for $110 now. Well the stream of $10 a year remains fixed (coupon), but the YIELD (coupon rate) has now gone down. Bc $10 from $110 is less than the original 10%. Price of the bond went up, the coupon rate went down.

And if less ppl want your bond then you’d sell it for a loss for say $90. And the coupon rate would go up.

The coupon rate normally has to do with how creditworthy (trustworthy) the market perceives you.

Higher coupon rates are cheaper bonds (as we discussed), so 3rd world countries normally have cheap bonds with high coupon rates bc there’s a higher risk involved for the lender.

1st world countries normally have expensive bonds with lower coupon rates bc they are perceived as creditworthy.

Risk is a big factor as rates rise.

I hope this helps you get started in understanding bonds if you’ve been wondering how they work. Obviously this is a very small definition but a great place to get started. Hope you enjoyed 🤙

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

FIRE !!!!

I take it for granted that people know this. Thank you for educating!

Anytime. It took me way too long to learn these basics about bonds. I had no idea where to find this info 😂

Never hesitate to reach out to me if you want help from an actuary trained in this. No detail is too small.

Will do! The more I learned about the current financial system the more bitcoin seemed so simple and made sense. No doubt being trained in all of this really helped you too.

There’s a lot to unlearn - the time it takes to reconcile Bitcoins existence is the biggest test of my time preference.

Why would the free market decide 10% is too high? When selling bonds wouldn’t a 10% coupon rate be more lucrative than a lower coupon rate?

There could be a number of reasons why the free market, or the Fed would decide 10% is too high. Could be that the issuer has become more creditworthy/less risky. Or in the case of when the Fed decides, it’s about making the cost of money cheaper to have a more liquid economy.

As for you 2nd question, the price of bonds and the coupon rate have an inverse relationship. If the price of the bond goes up, then the coupon rate goes down and vice versa. And the reason is bc the coupon (the fixed stream of income) doesn’t change. So the coupon is fixed, the price goes up, that means now you are getting less of a percentage from the face value of the bond.

Understood, thank you!

Coupon rate on a bond doesn’t change. What changes is the market. The market prices different yields over time but when you purchase a bond the coupon rate on that bond is locked in.

What makes the value of the bond go up or down is the discrepancy between the coupon rate of that bond versus what rate you can get on the open market.

This bond you got at 10% yield moons in value as the market rate goes much lower. You would pay a lot more for a contract yielding 10% coupon when the market rate is like 3%, right?

Conversely if you bought bonds with a near 0% coupon then the market goes to 5% yields, your bonds are cratered in value cuz the buyer can get such a better return buying new bonds on the open market.

This is how some of these banks are getting rekt as they loaded up on “risk-free” bonds when the yields were close to zero, then the Fed jacked rates up. The bond market prices the yields higher and low yield bonds get rekt.

That’s my understanding anyway.

Yep, I think we are pretty much saying the same thing. The important thing to understand is that what you are buying is fixed income. The coupon does not change. The market or the Fed can change the coupon rates, but that’s only if the bond is sold. Once sold it has a new price with the same fixed income, so the coupon rate has changed.

I see what you’re saying. 🤙

Do I get these coupons in the Sunday paper or in the mailer I throw out?

They come in the meat packaging from your butcher