**Why The Long-Awaited Ukrainian Counteroffensive Is Delayed**

Why The Long-Awaited Ukrainian Counteroffensive Is Delayed

The much-touted and anticipated spring counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army is still on hold, and according to both Ukraine military and Western officials, it's all due to mud. And yet, the White House has still offered an upbeat assessment (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kirby-claims-whopping-100000-russian-casualties-bakhmut-alone) of how Ukraine is fairing militarily. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby only yesterday declared of Russia's offensives against key holdout towns in Donetsk and Luhansk, "Most of these efforts have stalled and failed." He asserted that "Russia has been unable to seize any real strategically significant territory."

So Kirby paints a picture of a teetering Russian army (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kirby-claims-whopping-100000-russian-casualties-bakhmut-alone), and still there's no counteroffensive on the horizon. "But for the moment, they are barely moving forward, stalled not by ferocious Russian attacks, **but by an enemy no less tenacious: the viscous central Ukrainian mud**," _The New York Times_ (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/world/europe/ukraine-mud-counteroffensive-weapons.html) wrote Monday. A Ukrainian officer interviewed by the _Times_ acknowledged that "Until the weather improves, there will be no counteroffensive." This is because: "the vehicles will get stuck and then what will we do if the shooting starts?"

The report further describes why Ukraine is holding off in saying, "Deep and black, with a consistency similar to a mixture of cookie dough and wet cement, the spring mud is one obstacle that the Ukrainian military, for all its ingenuity, finds difficult to overcome." Further "It jams weapons and steals the boots from soldiers’ feet. Wheels and treads spin and spin, **only digging military vehicles deeper into the mire**."

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_Image: Anadolu Agency, Getty Images_ (?itok=XSryt0R0)

Echoing the same, Kiev’s ambassador to the UK, Vadim Pristayko, told (https://thepressunited.com/updates/bad-weather-delaying-counteroffensive-ukraine/) Sky News on Tuesday, "Obviously, **the weather is not allowing** so far the heavy tanks to move in the Ukrainian usual spring mud." Ukraine's Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov has also recently stated the weather has played a key role in determining the timing of a counteroffensive. Also, Russia has lately ramped up its strikes across the country. **Is it really just mud and less than ideal weather stalling the counteroffensive? Or is there something more?**

_Geopolitical commentator Melkulangara Bhadrakumar explores the "something more" below via The Ron Paul Institute (http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2023/may/02/whither-ukraine-s-counteroffensive/)..._

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The month of May has arrived but without the long-awaited Ukrainian “counteroffensive”. The western media is speculating that it may come by late May. There is also the spin that Kiev is judicious to “buy time.” The chances of Ukraine making some sort of “breakthrough” in the 950-km long Russian frontline cannot be ruled out but a Russian counteroffensive is all but certain to follow. An open-ended war will not suit Western powers.

Last week, NATO’s top commander, US Army General Christopher Cavoli stated that the Russian army operating in Ukraine **is larger than when the Kremlin launched its special military operation** and the Ukrainians “have to be better than the Russian force they will face” and decide when and where they will strike.

Cavoli said Russia **has strategic depth in manpower** and has only lost one warship and about 80 fighters and tactical bombers in an air fleet numbering about 1,000 so far. The general gently contradicted Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chief of General Staff Gen. Mark Milley who have been propagating that Russia is on the brink of defeat.

Speaking at the House panel on Wednesday, Gen. Cavoli said, **“This war is far from over.”** On Thursday, he went further to tell the Senate, **“I think \[the Russians\] can fight another year.”** At the House hearing, Cavoli also said Russian submarine activity has only picked up in the North Atlantic since the beginning of the war and none of the Kremlin’s strategic nuclear forces have been affected by operations in Ukraine.

He said at one point in his written testimony (https://armedservices.house.gov/sites/republicans.armedservices.house.gov/files/04.26.23%20Cavoli%20Statement%20v2.pdf), “ **Russian air, maritime, space, cyber, and strategic forces have not suffered significant degradation in the current war**. Moreover, Russia will likely rebuild its future Army into a sizeable and more capa…

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-long-awaited-ukrainian-counteroffensive-delayed