I like that aspect of counter-intuitive-ness to the theory.
Discussion
Just finished the interview. Great interview. Neil was right about most things, imho. But hear me out; this is why I think this new cycle will occur sooner than expected:
1. Technology has been speeding up the process of progression at an immensely fast rate in MANY different markets. Just do some research on the biotechnology, AI, energy, auto, and advertising markets. Even warfare (yes, war is a market. Let's not deny that).
2. Obviously, global economic crisis has reached a boiling point. It's at a point of no return and the global population is certainly aware of that. The COVID lockdown only sped up the process.
3. Personally, I don't believe that the current world leaders have faith in themselves. They keep telling the public these dreadful truths, and I don't see why they would make these known if their goal is to gather support from their national population. It doesn't make sense. For example, look at what the President of Egypt recently told the public.
The saeculum is a product of generations and their interplay, overlap and interaction.
It’s slowing because lifespans are getting longer, which means the relationship between generations elongates.
If this were the 1850s most boomers would all be dead and millennials would have their wealth. That’s not the case tho because even the generation preceding boomers is still very much alive and even still holding onto positions of public power.
Biden is a late stage silent gen member.
I think next we elect a true boomer- be it trunp or RFK jr
And we ride into all out global war being led by a boomer, and fought by millennials. Whoever becomes Prez next will be perceived very differently after the crisis that they lead us through, if it is successfully navigated.
I agree with you on certain points. Yes, a saeculum is most certainly a by-product of various forms of generational interaction. No doubt. I do think a boomer will be elected as the next president, and arguably the last of their generation. I don't think the military body count will be very high during the next global war. Drone tech has made it far too easy to cause mass damage.
It's as Nikola Tesla said:
"The loss of life will become smaller and smaller, and finally, the number of the individuals continuously diminishing, merely machines will meet in a contest without blood shed, the nation's being simply interested, ambitious spectators. When this happy condition is realized, peace will be assured."
And this is exactly what we're seeing now.