Replying to Avatar paulo

Anything can happen, of course, but going below $20k at this point would be a deep soul searching dip. Many things would be invalidated in my mind if we were to do something like that today, even more if we did that two years from now.
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CappyNate🍁 1y ago

You absolutely nailed it, which is why I like this scenario so much. A crash of this depth erases the two most prevalent yardsticks newbies use to measure BTC:

-Halving

-Power law/rainbow chart.

Without these, Bitcoiner's will have few metrics left to analyze the market. Their belief structure will be crushed. This disbelief is what is needed for violent capitulatory reversals.

Markets desire max pain. This achieves that.

For $74k to NOT be the top, BTC needs to break ATH very soon. The longer it stays without breaking, the higher likelihood the top is in at $74k.

Current likelihood about 65% top is in, 35% higher to go still.

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