No matter your stance, a bitcoin ETF approval will change the game. Yes, bitcoiners can stay humble, stack sats and largely ignore the ETF noise. But the fact is, if approval comes today, it WILL change the Bitcoin landscape. The real question is, in what way?
My prediction is in the short term we will see major volatility but that's likely due to over-exhuberance. People will try to trade but I don't think short teem fundamentals will change. Those sponsors anticipating approval will already have accumulated or have a plan in place. In the medium term, it's bullish for price as reserves get bought up and sponsors have to turn to the open market to acquire more.
We'll likely also see bitcoin baskets come along which hold the ETFs. At some point in the longer term, there might even become such a supply squeeze that investors have a hard time buying the ETF as sponsors can't keep up with demand and are unable to purchase BTC on the open market. At this stage, sponsors can only issue more shares and dilute the ETF prices (are they allowed to do this?) Or else they must create a derivitives market, pegged to ETF prices in order to satisfy investor demand. Depending on just how large this derivitives market becomes, can the tail wag the dog?!
Thoughts?
