Reconsidering the Application of the Sahm Rule to Individual States
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#ec88061c ver:0.1
Amazon economists Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone have developed a new model to predict recessions in real time. The model uses two inputs: one focused on real-economy activity and the other on financial conditions. It is designed to deliver a reading for a given month on the first business day of the next one, with separate versions for the US and Europe. The researchers use the Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress published by the European Central Bank for the financial side of their nowcasts, and the Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing in the US and the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator for the real-economy side. The model is said to be more useful at detecting the end of a recession and the beginning of a recovery. The economists argue that financial co...
#newstr #Recession #Unemployment #EconomicIndicators #SahmRule #StateCoincidentIndexes