I think you’re on to something. The amount being funneled into short-duration T-bills and Treasuries seems very real. What I don’t fully get is why the Fed, Treasury, and White House keep leaning so heavily on the short end. It feels short-sighted. There’s obvious rollover risk, and with deficits this big, at some point we run out of buyers. Sure, it kicks the can down the road, but even Waller admitted the Fed’s balance sheet is skewed to the long end and is floating the idea of acquiring more short-duration paper. Layer in the stablecoin push, and it all seems centered around keeping the short end rolling no matter what. I haven’t fully figured it out yet, but something about this strategy feels unstable.
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