if you think about history
the UK had a gin problem
the Soviet Union had a vodka problem
we have an opioid problem
and all of this is because SOULS are DYING.
Discussion
the BIG problem is SOULS are DYING.
look at this chart
before 1975
70% of the people were affiliated with a church and a synagogue
and then we fell
by the end of the panic of 2008, it was down to 60%
and in the covid to 40%
i’m not telling everybody’s a member
i think some people don’t even know what being member of a church is
maybe probable everybody on this room does
the point is
the bigger GOVT gets the less faith in something else people have
so, when i look at this
GOVT has become a savior. the ultimate higher power
and the saddest part is that we’re supposed to be our brother’s keeper
so, if we are supposed to be our brother’s keepers
how many brothers/sisters are we supposed to keep?
what’s the answer to that?
how many people are hopeless, luckless, feckless, and need our help?
absolutely need our help? can’t do it on their own
is it 5 out of a hundred?
if it's 5 out of a hundred i actually think that's too high.
if it's 5 out of a hundred that means we have 16 people in the wagon that shouldn't be there
so, when i look at our world that’s what worries me
is not necessarily the slower growth
is that underneath it we're rotting. huh?
just to make it clear, cuz i’m sure there are people in this room that receive social security medicare, and that's part of this GOVT spending, no doubt about it.
and i would never begrudge anyone who’s paid into those programs for being willing to take out of them
but this is my point:
when social security and medicare exist,
when programmes like that exist, financial planning, the family, the church, decisions about life are all changed
people save less than they would have otherwise
they don't worry about dealing with long-term health care problems bc medicare exists.
so, overtime, the problems created by these small decisions each and every day, each and every year by millions and millions of people, compound.
and as we’ve learned, the road to serfdom is paved with good intentions.
those programs have good intentions but the errors that they introduce in our economy compound over time. and we are living with some of those compounded problems today.
this is ONE of the PROBLEMS
the other PROBLEM
go back to the great society
we have spent $ 25 T ( inflation adjusted today )
trying to undo the wrongs of history
( welfare, food stamps, all of those things trying to redistribute income )
and all we’re left with is the fifth or sixth generation of welfare recipients in inner cities with bad schools and a lousy place to live
we're not doing a great job of taking care of our brothers and sisters
WE ONLY HAVE A GOVT SYSTEM THAT HAS GROWN AND GROWN AND GROWN
in spite of all of this
in spite of the evidence that these problems have failed
they’re still pushing their great reset agenda
look: during COVID
we have done unprecedented things
we shut down schools. we shut down churches
we printed $4 trillion. we spent $5 trillion
it was literally FEUDALISM
vaccinate to take a plane
vaccinate to access medicare
( feudalism )
the Q is
GOVT has become so big and intrusive that it can leverage its power and even more GOVT power ?
locking down the ECONOMY was one of the worst things of all time
the biggest policy mistake of all time
brutal
a market based economy only works when information flows
it takes billions of pieces of information
millions of people to get you a tomato in the store
( think about that )
you have to build the trucks
somebody has to make the lights
turn on the power to get the light in the store
you know, farmers have to grow…..
all of the millions and billions of things
so when you break that information chain
when the economy is locked down. it’s mayhem
ships are backed up at boards, empty shelves, higher prices, and delays in service
you can’t turn off the economy like the light switch and turn it back on
and bc GOVT can only handle about a dozen pieces of information at a time
the more the GOVT try to fix this the more mayhem it creates
( CHAOS )
what's happening to the economy?
we all know this. it isn’t a mystery
since FEB 2020, and this i find fascinating
retail sales are up 20%
that’s PRE-PANDEMIC
( i’m not talking about from the bottom in APRIL
after we shut down )
FEB 2020 retail sales are up 20%
in normal times with NO pandemic
they’d be up about 7%
so, how is it possible that retail sales are up 13% faster than normal and yet we have 4 million fewer people working?
the answer is we borrowed from our kids
we gave it to everybody spend a day
we printed more money
and what does this do?
it’s like giving morphine to an accident victim
they don’t know how badly they’re hurt
that’s what we have done
by paying people not to work
by giving people money and letting them spend
retailers selling more goods than their never sold in their lives
it makes it feel like nothing’s wrong. when in fact:
ALL WE HAVE DONE IS BUILD DEBT AFTER DEBT AFTER DEBT
this is M2
Milton Friedman told me to watch M2
he didn’t tell me to watch QE and the monetary base
he said: what is happening with the money supply in the banking system?
this is year over year % growth in M2
we peaked at 27%
we’re now growing 13%
if you look back over history
is the fastest money grow since the 70’s
this is why we have inflation
is not all bc of supply chain problems
is bc we have printed way too much money and we are addicted to it
conclusion:
i described the problems of the economy
NOW. where do we go from here?
the fisherman and the boat or the redistribution of wealth by politicians?
WEALTH CREATION OR WEALTH DISTRIBUTION?
that’s the battle of all of humankind
rise and fall of nations
wealth and poverty
( all of it it’s gone on forever )
one thing i hear people say about AMERICA is…
democracies only last 200 years.
( it’s not really perfectly true )
but we get the point
we’re getting close to the end
we’re gonna vote ourselves
the majority votes… the minority pays for it
OK. i get the point
i look back in history and i see it
but re-member
there is ONLY ONE U.S. Constitution
there is ONLY ONE AMERICA
there’s no historical precedent
so don’t tell me AMERICA only lasts 200 years
it’s never been around before, so how can you tell me that?
i still believe in the constitution
250 years
the only bad thing is we've accepted a BIGGER GOVT
we must shrink the size of the GOVT
when i see faith in GOVT GROW
and faith in GOD diminish
i wonder if we're gonna able to turn it around without a RE-FOUNDING
we need to RE-FOUND AMERICA
to believe in FREE MARKETS
we need to have FAITH
and faith is faith in your fellow man/woman
that they like you are made in the image of GOD
that they, he or she, whoever they are
will show up to work every day and do their part
to provide the good and services you desire
as you do the same
( i've said this twice now )
unfortunately, many of our fellow and owners don't believe this
we have a lot of work to do
i know the solution. you know the solution
i hear conservatives all the time
they're fighting opioids
they're fighting crime
they're fighting trucking regulations
they're fighting diversity and inclusion rules
all of those are worthy battles
but not the main battle
( changing any of those things won't change our future path )
if we don't shrink the size of GOVT
we're not creating wealth
we must shrink the size of GOVT
and one of the keys to that is getting more FAITH
we need our children, our journalists, our politicians to talk about this stuff out loud
we need to encourage them
we all know that it’s freedom and free markets
that’s what get US there
that’s what BITCOIN stands for
what we need is FAITH
WE RE-INVENT AMERICA
the solution is BITCOIN
nostr:note17z97jpwfqgydt99xtr4pn5s0sn9ztcvgtwg25jfke29v3jlgw7yscf99jf
let's go back to the beginning: and it’s MISES
we can’t go back to the beginning of life and decide that that’s how resources…
it doesn't matter.
flip the coin. pick any day in history
it wouldn’t be fair.
NOTHING IS FAIR. EVER
except for the LAW.
when we put LAW in place
we all operate under the same RULES
trying to go back and break the law to break down the barrier of the law so we can change the distribution of resources
is literally going back to the same thing. the same place we were before the law
getting rid of the LAW take us back to VIOLENCE
that’s the problem
i don't know how you ever make a big argument on that
it’s not a bumper sticker
you can’t win a presidency based on that
you don’t win a senate race based on that
but that’s the underlying philosophy
that’s the underlying thing that made AMERICA GREAT
and that’s what we have to DEFEND
that’s what i want to share
what’s underneath. what we’re defending
is not trucking regulations but the LAW
RULE OF LAW is what makes AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
back to the 200-year speech
how can we navigate financially in 2025?
i divide the world in 2 parts
the next 12 months and then after that
after that, is all stuff i’m talking about
what are we gonna do about the debt?
how are our tax rates gonna change?
and we’ll find that out at some point in time.
( scroll up and read )
we’re still printing
we’ve printed $4T 38% more money
and that money is pouring into the economy
so, what i tell investors is when there’s a flood
everything in your house floats, but your weight is set
and that’s investing today
everything's floating
earnings are gonna be up
we're gonna continue to add millions of jobs
over the next 12 months
retail sales are gonna continue to grow. faster than historical norms
we will slowly but surely fixed supply chains
but inflation’s here
for the conservatives:
don't just buy gold
BUY BITCOIN
buy a basket of commodities
all of them will tend to rise
oil companies are cheap
manufacturing companies are cheap
material companies are cheap
real estate is at a permanently higher price
bc of 38% of money grow
we’re not gonna take the money out of the economy
all i mean by that is we won't go up like we did last year
but we will go up more slowly from this level in the future
for the next 12 months?
i kinda close my eyes and stay long
bc when the FED is this easy
and they’re not gonna raise rates. stay long
that’s my advice
for US
BUY BITCOIN AND HOLD
HOW DO WE MOVE TO LESS GOVERNMENT?
we need smaller GOVT
we need more FAITH
we all know the penny plan, right?
if we just cut spending a penny every year