Have you noticed bond yields rising in the USA? The US Treasury 30-year bond yield hit 5% yesterday. Meanwhile, the Chinese 30-year bond yield is at 1.85% and sinking like a lump of lead. Collapsing bond yields are a sure sign of a weak economy and deflation. In this chart, the red line shows the 30-year Treasury bond yield and the black line shows the 30-year China government bond yield.

Even the USA. All the traditional recession signals — PMIs, sentiment surveys, yield curve, Warren Buffett hoarding cash etc — have been flashing but there’s been no recession and no bear market. It’s like waiting at a railroad crossing, lights flash, bells ring, the gates go down, but no train comes. Then the arms go back up again and you think, “What the hell’s going on?”

Source: Bonner Research