I do think your analysis is spot on. It lacks some factor for non-linear impulses. Maybe I find the article, about a professor that researched around social tipping points through spontaneous network impulses.

Think humans writing each other on social media. His studies were used to find control and surveillance measures to stop spreading the wild fire of ideas outside the well crafted overton window. It's not so much that they want to censor individuals. They regulate the amplitude.

However you give too much credit to the AI powered central planners. Every living system hasan weakspot to dismantle the whole thing (think Achilles).

We are going through a paradigm shift and all those perimeter controls behind the scenes seem necessary to maintain power, which tells me there is a window of opportunity of redefining some fundamental human interactions.

Nostr, Bitcoin, Monero are social structures, tools and techniques that get discovered as the need for them increase. As long as they stick to principles they can be used as leverage at any point in time in the future, which brings us to markets that somehow will need to factor in the tail risk of a spontaneous global discovery of said tools.

Self custodied BTC waking up and atomic swapping into Monero in the millions is one such thing they currently couldn't efficiently stop. It's our duty to have the tools (AMM, DEX, atomic swaps) available to facilitate spontaneous healing.

That's why I said the short cut for BTC to reach $1M is swapping 10% for Monero.

I believe in natural corrective forces in a world based on polarity. Any future potential of economic liberation will be realised sooner or later, no matter the walls you build around it.

You might like this podcast. I'd like to hear your stance on state avoiding and state repelling (creating enforcement costs higher than gains from taxation).