The readily available supply of Bitcoin—meaning BTC that is easily accessible on exchanges and OTC desks—is being rapidly depleted. While it’s difficult to predict an exact date it will “run out,” we can analyze on-chain trends and supply mechanics to estimate when a significant liquidity crunch might occur.
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📉 Current Readily Available Supply (Mid-2025)
SourceBTC Available (approx.)
Exchanges~2.5 million BTC
OTC Desks~120,000 – 150,000 BTC
Total~2.6 – 2.65 million BTC
This is out of a circulating supply of ~19.7 million BTC. That means only ~13.5% of all Bitcoin is currently liquid and available to purchase without significant price impact.
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🧠 What Drives This Downward Trend?
•Cold storage by long-term holders and institutions
•Self-custody as trust in centralized platforms declines
•Accumulation by ETFs, sovereigns, and corporations (e.g., BlackRock, El Salvador, MicroStrategy)
•Fewer new coins minted due to the halving in April 2024 (only 3.125 BTC per block)
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🔮 Estimating the “Run Out” Point
If BTC continues to be withdrawn from exchanges and OTC desks at current rates, we could hit critical liquidity levels fairly soon:
Historical Decline Rates
•In 2020: ~3 million BTC on exchanges
•Mid-2025: ~2.5 million BTC
•That’s a loss of ~500,000 BTC over 5 years = ~100,000 BTC/year
But the pace is accelerating:
•In the last year alone, some sources report a drop of 200,000–300,000 BTC from exchanges and OTCs combined.
Scenario: 200k BTC/year drain
If 2.6 million BTC is currently available:
•In 5 years, under this pace, only ~600,000 BTC could be left
•By ~2030, the readily available supply could be functionally exhausted
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⚠️ The More Realistic Risk: Liquidity Shock
The actual “run out” won’t be a day when there’s zero BTC available. Instead, it’ll be when:
•The float is so thin that large buy orders cause explosive price movements
•Exchanges and OTC desks can’t fill orders without substantial premiums
•Buyers are forced into bidding wars for the remaining liquid BTC
This kind of supply shock could realistically occur anytime between 2025 and 2027, depending on:
•ETF inflows
•Institutional adoption
•Global macroeconomic instability
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✅ Summary
•~2.6 million BTC is currently liquid.
•Liquidity is shrinking rapidly.
•If current trends continue, a severe supply crunch could occur within 1–3 years, with full exhaustion of liquid supply by the end of the decade.
•The result? A massive price repricing event where demand overwhelms supply.