That’s incarceration rate per 100k vs homicide rate per 100k according to the sources I posted earlier up in the replies. Zoomed in to see countries with <10 homicides per 100k

Looks like countries vary in how steep their line is, but there are roughly two modes - strict, and not. The US is roughly in the middle of the strict mode distribution as seen in that graph. I doubt we want to switch to be be in the middle of the not strict distribution, but if we were we’d incarcerate at a rate if 110 per 100k while keeping our homicide rate of 4.96 per 100k

Thanks I had no idea about that data.