Another intermediate option is to do a test "roll your own seed" and verify its xpub using an online tool, then do your real one. This is not fool proof thou, as the attacker could have a random variable that selects on average, say, every fifth xpub as the dummy output.

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That would help, yes.

The next Trust problem is XPUB -> addresses. Fortunately this is less difficult to safely check as you can plug the same XPUB into multiple software wallets to confirm they produce the same address sequence.