I think you *almost* got it -- I believe that the criminal organizations called "governments" and its multiple cronies, like the criminal bands called "banks", won't implement black lists of those BTC holders that they are able to identify, but white lists of the ones they authorize.

They won't need to investigate everybody. Whoever wants to use BTC anywhere near their system will have to voluntarily out himself, doing the dirty work for them himself. Just as they already do with fiat. You're guilty until you prove that you're not. Your UTXOs will be dirty and unusable until you give them the whole history, they take their cut, and you deposit them with a custodian.

I hope we are early enough to figure out ways around that.