Trying to time the market is a fool’s errand.
If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%.
There are 252 trading days in 1 year; in 30 years, there are 7,560 trading days.
As an investor, you had a 0.13% chance of correctly anticipating the 10 most profitable days with a 99.86% chance of missing out on 50% of returns.
You had a 0.39% chance of correctly anticipating the 30 most profitable days with a 99.61% chance of missing out on 83% of returns.
Clearly, the best risk-adjusted method for optimal return on investment is time in the market, not timing the market.