Noted…. I don’t get it.
Discussion
It simply means money is moving from equities to bonds ..
If more money chase treasury bonds then gov can issue more bonds at lower yield ( interest rate ) ..
The whole point of this tarrif shakeout is to reduce 10 year T bills yeild ..which I. Turn pushes down mortgage rates ..
Club that with lower energy cost ( oil is failing ) .. you kick start the housing market .. the American dream
Makes sense ?
But bond yield if getting higher?
It fell sixty basis points over last week .. some profit taking going on .. small recovery this morning .. I am expecting Bessent would bring it down to 2 percent and force the hands of Powell ...to bring short term fed rates down to 3 percent ..
That is when growth stocks ( including #bitcoin ) kick back in ..
Powell is not acting right !
So more printing, brilliant.
Yes .. you can't bring manufacturing back to US if dollar gets stronger .. that is simple arithmetic given China and India are in race to devalue their currencies ..
Good for asset holders .. socialism for the poor !
So how is it looking now with the treasuries?
It is great time for treasuries .. instead of US , investors are checking out Germany.. it is a process ..
I thought your thesis was yield has to go down, when it's clearly quite the opposite
Yes .. nothing ever goes down in a line .. besides Gold is always a better hedge in turbulent times .. that's is why my portfolio is always
30 : 30 : 30 :: BTC : GLD : VTI ..
Coming from Jack Bogle class of investing , I used to be 60 : 40 .. but I gave up on bonds in favor of BTC and Gold .. cuz Gold is ultimate hedge and BTC is good Karma !
Despite my own investments ( and temporary losses ) I still like Trump Bessant stgy .. someone is atleast trying to cover main street ..
Well, your thesis might have been right but reality ended up being drastically different
Yes .. you are right .. but look at the results ..
Trump got ten percent across the board ..that are good enough to fund the tax cuts ( including those on tips and Social security) .. he claims to have seventy countries for bilateral talks .. I would give him 35 :-) .. and he has China in the corner with 125 percent .. let say effectively half cuz Apple and Tesla would obviously get a pass ..
And markets are back ..roaring
What is lost is the idea that reputation is under question ... Well , in international relations , no one gives a flip .. it is all transactional .. politics is never an assumption!
Besides ..that is exactly why it is called reverse repo .. people who were long are selling to cover their losses ... It will fall sharper tomorrow..