When I study my charts, I’m fairly bullish.
When I listen to other economists, I get bearish.
Who’s right? (I have my suspicions…)
Discussion
I think it’s one of you👍🏻
Are you talking about Bitcoin? If so, don't look at charts. Get a deeper understanding of how Bitcoin is a superior money system for most of the world's population. Few.
On Bitcoin specifically or macro in general?
Risk assets and bitcoin are generally bullish across the board since 4Q 2022.
I’m nowhere near the expert that you are, but I tend to agree
Do you see any possible future where risk assets have a final down period but Bitcoin detaches - similar to how gold behaved during 2009-10?
That’s definitely possible. I anticipate bitcoin will generally decouple from equities for much of this decade.
Interesting
I’m obviously positioned for this, but it will be very fascinating to watch this potentially unfold
I appreciate your time!⚡️
In the end, it has to happen that way. If Bitcoin will win (which seems to be more than just likely by now imo), risk assets have to drop in price (note that every asset is a risk asset). Their price has to drop simply because a relevant portion of their value is based on a monetary premium which only exists because of the fiat currencies lack to store value. Things will get repriced.
The only question which can’t be answered is HOW the end phase of this hyperbitcoinization will happen. It depends on macroeconomic events (think of covid, potential WWIII, fiat collapses, CBDC introductions and many more) that could lead to a general drawdown before we enter the before mentioned process.
Due to the self destroying design of fiat currencies, a new currency must emerge. Govs and people in power would love to see their favorite (monopoly) currencies winning this race (CBDCs) but they will have a hard time making it against bitcoin. IMO the end result is already set in stone (bitcoin wins), its just hard to predict the exact way how we will get there.
In the end, it has to happen that way. If Bitcoin will win (which seems to be more than just likely by now imo), risk assets have to drop in price (note that every asset is a risk asset). Their price has to drop simply because a relevant portion of their value is based on a monetary premium which only exists because of the fiat currencies lack to store value. Things will get repriced.
The only question which can’t be answered is HOW the end phase of this hyperbitcoinization will happen. It depends on macroeconomic events (think of covid, potential WWIII, fiat collapses, CBDC introductions and many more) that could lead to a general drawdown before we enter the before mentioned process.
Due to the self destroying design of fiat currencies, a new currency must emerge. Govs and people in power would love to see their favorite (monopoly) currencies winning this race (CBDCs) but they will have a hard time making it against bitcoin. IMO the end result is already set in stone (bitcoin wins), its just hard to predict the exact way how we will get there.
In the end, it has to happen that way. If Bitcoin will win (which seems to be more than just likely by now imo), risk assets have to drop in price (note that every asset is a risk asset). Their price has to drop simply because a relevant portion of their value is based on a monetary premium which only exists because of the fiat currencies lack to store value. Things will get repriced.
The only question which can’t be answered is HOW the end phase of this hyperbitcoinization will happen. It depends on macroeconomic events (think of covid, potential WWIII, fiat collapses, CBDC introductions and many more) that could lead to a general drawdown before we enter the before mentioned process.
Due to the self destroying design of fiat currencies, a new currency must emerge. Govs and people in power would love to see their favorite (monopoly) currencies winning this race (CBDCs) but they will have a hard time making it against bitcoin. IMO the end result is already set in stone (bitcoin wins), its just hard to predict the exact way how we will get there.
The charts don’t lie
Dr bear 🐻 shouldn’t go on leave just yet.
