S2F used to be THE model. Models are great fan fiction, like climate science. Charts propose many things, including a return to below 12k. Yes, I went there and Iām standing by it.
I love the pricing models, I can't help it. Here are the three models that are still valid and have not been imbalanced.
First the LGC model by Dave the Wave, although the author failed on the late 2018 3000 bottom and there created his model, since then it has not been invalidated predicting bottoms and tops very well.
Second the Power Law Corridor model of HCBurguer, which comes to say the same as the LGC model of dave the wave but better formulated mathematically, this model was created in early 2019 and from my point of view is the most accurate.
Finally the BARM model (Bitcoin Autocorrelated Exchange Rate Model) by @chipernom (The author keeps changing his name on social networks, it is difficult for me to follow him). From a statistical point of view it is the best model, from a price point of view, it is very crazy.
I leave you also the two articles corresponding to the LGC model and Power Law Corridor, unfortunately the author of BARM has deleted all his articles and they are not even in internet archive.
https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-the-lgc-model-and-support
Discussion
There are statistically valid models and statistically invalid models.
S2F was never statistically valid.
Of the three I have shown, the only one statistically supported is BARM.
I don't believe in models, but models can be useful and I like them. I believe more in my common sense which is usually always pessimistic š.