Germany’s recent fiscal U-turn should push its government debt trajectory from a long decline back into growth, Natixis scenarios suggest. Under those scenarios, debt-to-GDP would break the recent downtrend from just above 60% and reach roughly 70–80% by 2030. Natixis assumes potential growth of 2.4–3.6% and effective government borrowing rates of 1.8–2.3%, meaning nominal interest costs remain below growth but primary balances are insufficient to prevent rising debt. #Germany #DebtToGDP

Italy presents a counterpoint: its debt level is already much higher but, according to the same Natixis scenarios, should essentially stabilise. Assumed potential growth is 2–3.2% while borrowing rates are higher at 3.1–3.8%; nonetheless, a projected primary surplus of 1.1% keeps the debt path more contained. Italian 10‑year bonds trade at about a 0.8 percentage‑point premium over German yields. Simple extrapolation suggests Germany could reach Italy’s debt-to-GDP level in roughly 40 years under these dynamics. #Italy

On a wider scale, the US is also on a rising debt path: CBO projections imply US government debt-to-GDP could reach an Italian “standard” between about 2040 and 2050 and continue rising thereafter. #CBO #USDebt #FiatNews