this is certainly a fair take. I don't have a good answer apart that maybe if 60% of Russian forces are eliminated, Putin really sees an interest in ending this war rapidly as long as he can paint it as a victory internally. But I agree this might be wishful thinking after witnessing how obsessed he is with his version of history.

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He always can paint a victory, at any moment. Even if he withdraw all forces from Ukraine he can declare a victory.

I'm not sure he wants to end this conflict. Ukraine is not allowed to use western weapons on rusia territory. so putin is in no personal danger. So the war can continue as long as there is cannon fodder.

Probably he may wants some pause for recovery,

BTW he already outlined the terms of the truce. Ukraine is giving up territory that's already occupied. That's 20%. We're not going to do that.