Interesting to see we’re back to even odds on the election. I know it doesn’t matter but like watching for the glimpse into normie minds. 🍿
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1724572357219
Discussion
It was also interesting to see the polling results from the Republican side.
While both sides have vested interests in presenting polls that put them in a favorable light, the most rational approach is to present the figures as they are in order to device strategies to improve the ratings. Skewing the poll numbers is a risky tactic that only makes sense for the MSM.
The high number of undecided voters are more likely Trump- (or RFK jr) aligned than Kamala-aligned since there is tangible establishment-crafted stigmatization associated with Trump (8 years of smearing in a dozen Western nations) but no MSM-created stigma associated with Kamala.
Yes, mixed incentives. From a strategic point of view, showing slightly positive poll results could motivate campaign workers and donors. (To give their time and money because it’s not a lost cause.)
Showing slightly negative results could motivate voters to get to the polls. (They might stay home if they’re lazy and think they’ll win anyway.)
I honestly believe that this election comes down to which party cheats better. There are probably a few key counties where stuffing a few ballots would flip the state. I would think they would have the data to know where to focus their efforts.