Replying to Avatar Bitcoin Beans

If the price of Bitcoin goes up forever, which we have the conviction of due to our deep study and understanding of pure economics how would this happen? Unless someone was a little greedy and over leveraged themselves.
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Micael 2mo ago 💬 1

First of all you have to delegate the custody of your funds to get a fiat loan. You are giving away generation al wealth and power to someone else for a quick buck.

Lets say you are responsible and not greedy at all. But you are introducing counterparty risk, like with celisuis, blockfi, there’s always risk.

Many people will get overconfident that the price of bitcoin will never go 80/70% down so they will get greedy and that can accelerate the downfall of the price because of forced liquidations.

Banks will love this because this is the game they created and they control : they get your collateral for free. They did this in 1929-1933 they did it again in 1987, again in 2008 and also in 2020.

There’s no logical explanation to say that this will not happen with bitcoin.

Is the fiat game. Is to give them power in exchange for what? A quick buck of fiat poison?

Not worth it for me.

But hey! Everyone is free to do whatever they want!

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Bitcoin Beans 2mo ago 💬 2

Thank you for taking the time to give the depth I was hoping you would give. Very helpful. I see and get it. I did take a loan out with Ledn, (about 10% of my total stack) it took me about 12 months to come to the decision, the point I always got stuck on was trusting a third party to take care of my Bitcoin, this is the opposite of what Bitcoin has taught us. It still feels a little uncomfortable if I am honest.

Would you then advocate selling BTC to realise the fiat we sadly still need to live right now? And take the CGT.

nostr:nprofile1qqsggcc8dz9qnmq399n7kp2yu79fazxy3ag8ztpea4y3lu4klgqe46qpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcpz3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezum3dw35jumt99uqsfpwv did a really good piece on this a few months back.

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Micael 2mo ago

No problem. This is just my honest opinion of course.

If you feel confortable with that you should do it. Just have a clear plan on how/when you'll repay it. Ledn guys look legist as far as I know. Just take into consideration that this is not risk free, actually you could lose 100% of your 10% lol. I hope you don't.

Then for general cases I'll ask: 1) What's the loan for? 2) How /when do you plan to repay the loan? People usually do this to buy something or to buy more bitcoin. Sometimes to start a biz.

I think every case is different, but I believe the risk is not worth it, at least for me. I don't want to play a game that is rigged and introduce counterparty risk. Specially when bitcoin is in a monetization phase that will take at least another decade I believe.

In the only case I can consider doing this is if there is another 2022/2023 70-80% downfall, many bankruptcies, crazy forced liquidations, bitcoin "dying" again, end of the world, blood in the streets kind of scenario.

In that case you want to have the capacity to take leverage but not to be a victim from the downfall and forced liquidations.

Always remember the game is rigged and fucking banks will do everything posible to get the bitcoins from you for free. Giving you worthless fiat currency is literally free from the lol (not for ledn of course).

But yea, I believe a big hype and FOMO will induce crazy leverage and then crazy liquidations will come. I believe we are just starting, we are no way on a "hot crazy leverage" levels right now.

That's what I think. But you don't necessary have to think like me or believe me. I am not a financial advisor, but I fucked around and found out many things lol.

I also like to live within my means. I understand that every time I buy something, there is a significant opportunity cost for not holding sats.

What's CGT?

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Micael 2mo ago 💬 1

No problem. This is just my honest opinion of course.

If you feel confortable with that you should do it. Just have a clear plan on how/when you'll repay it. Ledn guys look legist as far as I know. Just take into consideration that this is not risk free, actually you could lose 100% of your 10% lol. I hope you don't.

Then for general cases I'll ask: 1) What's the loan for? 2) How /when do you plan to repay the loan? People usually do this to buy something or to buy more bitcoin. Sometimes to start a biz.

I think every case is different, but I believe the risk is not worth it, at least for me. I don't want to play a game that is rigged and introduce counterparty risk. Specially when bitcoin is in a monetization phase that will take at least another decade I believe.

In the only case I can consider doing this is if there is another 2022/2023 70-80% downfall, many bankruptcies, crazy forced liquidations, bitcoin "dying" again, end of the world, blood in the streets kind of scenario.

In that case you want to have the capacity to take leverage but not to be a victim from the downfall and forced liquidations.

Always remember the game is rigged and fucking banks will do everything posible to get the bitcoins from you for free. Giving you worthless fiat currency is literally free from the lol (not for ledn of course).

But yea, I believe a big hype and FOMO will induce crazy leverage and then crazy liquidations will come. I believe we are just starting, we are no way on a "hot crazy leverage" levels right now.

That's what I think. But you don't necessary have to think like me or believe me. I am not a financial advisor, but I fucked around and found out many things lol.

I also like to live within my means. I understand that every time I buy something, there is a significant opportunity cost for not holding sats.

What's CGT?

Avatar
Mike Maruska 2mo ago 💬 1

When thinking about collateral loans, I get hung up. It seems like you either need to go the kyc route, or deal with shitcoins or tether (which smells like a cbdc). I don't like either option. Neither seems to fit with BTC's ethos.

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Micael 2mo ago

I am with you.