I see what graph you are talking about now. That was from the other day. My post from this morning is the new NAV. It’s moving up. Just like clock work. I add to my positions when the NAV gets down to 2 or lower and then ride it back up to 3 to 4, then take some profits. Wash, rinse repeat.
Discussion
Hmmmm. 🤔
What you are saying doesn’t match this real time chart OR what the price changes of MSTR and the underlying Bitcoin have been doing over the past few sessions, weeks and months….
The NAV multiple per “basic share” is at 2.056 barely moved from yesterday’s multi month LOW of 2.04. (After peaking in the mid 3s for a nano-second a few weeks ago when MSTR traded above 500)
The full diluted NAV at 2.36 just represents the marginal .3 multiples of underlying Bitcoin dilution if all convertible bonds converted to pure equity (from debt).
Nothing moved in any meaningful way from yesterday to today in these relationships.
We are still at multi month lows in the NAV/BTC ratio. Basic OR diluted.
And still too HIGH, IMO. But you already know that…😉
I go off of the URL for the site I gave you yesterday in regards to the “official” NAV number.
Sometimes I forget o refresh the site since its always open and I never turn my computer off. So you are correct as that was a NAV from the 16th. Anyhow, right now at this red hot moment its at 1.865 after all the FUD from yesterdays FOMC announcement. It's wild to watch in real time how these markets (all the markets) are so entrenched in what the Fed's say and not so much in what they do. In the end, its what they do and not what they say of course. On the tracker site, its interesting that if you only look at the top headlines you see the NAV at 2.140x. If you look deeper in to the actual charts they provide by scrolling down, the NAV is always different than the red hot minute NAV on the charts. I forget to look at the charts sometimes as well.
Dont know if this link shared cleanly.
Balanced article, I thought.
Pretty much spells out what I was sharing with you (as my opinion) over past week.
Even at 2x price to NAV, this is a very risky stock to trade from the long side. Especially with leaps….
Sure, you could catch an expanding wave up again. But that would be an exception. Very hard to time.
Better to just stack UTXOs, in my opinion. Over time, premium over NAV will likely trend towards 1 ☝️
Furthermore….(and THIS is the primary reason I’d be concerned if I had exposure to your trade)…
The NAV premium spent MOST of the 1q of 2024 between 1 and 1.5. With a month trading right at 1. Like it SHOULD!
There is no perpetual motion machine here. Only if there is sufficiently unsophisticated buyers to pay absurd premiums to the most liquid asset in the world.
Saylor KNOWS this. And so he will continue to sell stock at 2x, 1.75x, 1.5x etc
It’s free money for him and mstr. At the EXPENSE of those paying the high premium for mstr stock vs BTC NAV.
You may get another pop (to 2.25 or so) but this is a “one trick pony”.
Fortunately for you, you made big coin on that trick!!! 💰
