**We Should Really Be Having More Kids**
We Should Really Be Having More Kids
_Submitted by Jack Raines via Young Money (https://www.youngmoney.co/p/really-kids),_
In 27 BC, Caesar Augustus was crowned the first Roman emperor. Widely considered one of Rome’s greatest leaders, Augustus’s reign marked the beginning of the 200-year _Pax Romana._
One reason that the Roman Empire flourished during this time was its first-class transportation and sewage infrastructure that supported densely-populated cities, with Rome itself boasting an estimated one million residents at its peak.
However, these population centers were also susceptible to epidemics, disease, and lead poisoning ( _lead was commonly used in pipes, eating utensils, and even food and drinks_), yielding high infant mortality rates and low life expectancies (maximum ~33 years).
?itok=UNBtvgEc (
?itok=UNBtvgEc)
**Low life expectancy + expansive territories meant that the Roman Empire needed high birth rates to maintain enough soldiers to defend its borders, and Rome struggled to keep its birth rates above the population replacement rate.** This issue was so important that Augustus offered tax breaks (https://flight.beehiiv.net/v2/clicks/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL2ZhY3RzYW5kZGV0YWlscy5jb20vd29ybGQvY2F0NTYvc3ViMzY5L2l0ZW0yMDc3Lmh0bWw_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT13d3cueW91bmdtb25leS5jbyZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPXJlZmVycmFsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj13ZS1zaG91bGQtcmVhbGx5LWJlLWhhdmluZy1tb3JlLWtpZHMiLCJwb3N0X2lkIjoiNjQzZmMwMzQtY2E1MS00ZTQwLWIxOWMtZGNmNDI1YTFmNTU3IiwicHVibGljYXRpb25faWQiOiJiMzFmYTA4Yy1jMTE0LTQyYzctYmUzZi05YmUyNjA2Y2ZmMzIiLCJ2aXNpdF90b2tlbiI6ImVlNjhjOTJjLWMxYjYtNDJjNi1hMmExLThiOWQ1NmI3MGMwYSIsImlhdCI6MTY4MjYwNzg4My40MjQsImlzcyI6Im9yY2hpZCJ9.KPXIunJSohxwvA_GuBUikVuKaWam7cGDUhVxgf9kxOk) for large families and cracked down on abortion and adultery because he believed that “ _too many men spent their energy with prostitutes and concubines and had nothing for their wives, causing population declines._”
But government efforts never succeeded in meaningfully increasing birth rates.
At the conclusion of the _Pax Romana_, low birth rates, combined with plague and war, wreaked havoc on Rome’s population, and the power structure of the empire shifted to the newer Constantinople. Rome never recovered, with the city’s population dwindling (https://flight.beehiiv.net/v2/clicks/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL2VuLndpa2lwZWRpYS5vcmcvd2lraS9IaXN0b3J5X29mX1JvbWU_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.zf5Z5Eewd07HVBPqIqx2iaj3rBxd_anBai96TmlHwhk) from a peak of 1,000,000 residents in the late second century to ~30,000 by 600 AD.
We humans draw parallels and analogies across time and space because they help us better understand the world around us, and no two Western civilizations have attracted more comparisons than the Roman Empire and the United States of America.
Both nations experienced explosions of wealth and eras of unprecedented peace, both nations were the dominant global powers of their respective eras, and today, the US faces the same issue that plagued Rome 2,000 years ago: _declining birth rates._
In _The Sun Also Rises_, Hemingway penned this now timeless exchange:
> _“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, and then suddenly.”_
Ernest Hemingway: _The Sun Also Rises_
We worry about global warfare and pandemics because they’re big and scary and sudden and could wipe us out with a sudden **BANG!** But the real existential threat, declining birth rates, will progress like Mike’s bankruptcy: _gradually, and then suddenly_.
Allow me to demonstrate through some basic arithmetic.
~2.1 children per woman is the typical population replacement rate in a developed country, and the US currently has a total fertility rate ( _which measures the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age_): of 1.84 (https://flight.beehiiv.net/v2/clicks/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy5jaWEuZ292L3RoZS13b3JsZC1mYWN0Ym9vay9maWVsZC90b3RhbC1mZXJ0aWxpdHktcmF0ZS9jb3VudHJ5LWNvbXBhcmlzb24_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT13d3cueW91bmdtb25leS5jbyZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPXJlZmVycmFsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj13ZS1zaG91bGQtcmVhbGx5LWJlLWhhdmluZy1tb3JlLW…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/we-should-really-be-having-more-kids