... (cont'd)

[Google Brain] Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models

https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903

Recent work suggests chain-of-thought prompting changes scaling curves & therefore the point where emergence occurs.

In their paper the Google researchers showed chain-of-thought prompts could elicit emergent behaviors.

Such prompts, which ask the model to explain its reasoning, may help researchers begin to investigate why emergence occurs at all.

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... (cont'd)

Recent findings like these suggest at least two possibilities for why emergence occurs.

1. In comparison to biological systems larger models truly gain new abilities spontaneously.

2. What appears to be emergent may instead be the culmination of an internal, statistics-driven process that works through chain-of-thought-type reasoning. Large LLMs may simply be learning heuristics that are out of reach for those with fewer parameters or lower-quality data.

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Discussion

... (cont'd)

Scaling laws and emergent abilities

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model

LLM model performance f. 100 million to >500 billion parameters = progressive unlocking of emergent capabilities such as multi-lingual translation, arithmetic, programming code composition

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model#Scaling_laws_and_emergent_abilities

... larger models may acquire "emergent abilities" at this point. These abilities are discovered rather than programmed or designed, in some cases only after the LLM has been publicly deployed

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