Knowledge creation is fundamentally unpredictable.

You would have to already have the knowledge in order to be able to say when it would be created, which of course is a contradiction.

Two things make discussing current work on quantum computers even worse.

1. Startups in order to raise money over-hype and over-promise.

2. Instead of getting individual fully functional qubits to work, there is this idea of getting partially functional qubits, and then attempt to do error correction.

So you hear about a company that builds a quantum computer with X qubits, but none of the qubits reliably function.

Imagine knowing you want to run code on a classical computer, but all the transistors/bits functioned 50% of the time. How many would you need to run your code???

It isn't clear to me that this approach will even work.