It's really impossible to predict because most of the supply that comes to meet demand is from existing bitcoin holders. At what price do they decide to exercise some of that bitcoin optionality?

If most hodlers decide that they're not selling any until at least $1m, the ratio might be much higher than 20:1. As each cycle passes, the conviction of hodlers increases & so does the number of hodlers with conviction. More sats become not for sale (at any price) as the sats get more evenly distributed.