Weakest ADP jobs report in two years points to hiring freeze tied to the Trump Administration’s tariff trade wars. In addition, the spending bill in the Senate is expected to increase the federal debt by $2.4 trillion which will increase inflation further. In this scenario where stagflation is being triggered by economic policy, the Fed can’t lower interest rates because the US is not going into a recession, it’s going into stagflation. Generally to then get the US out of stagflation later this year the Fed would need to raise interest rates to further decrease consumer spending. This is an odd scenario because the Trump Administration is putting policies in place to trigger stagflation and seems to be unaware that they are doing this. 🇺🇸
