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Replying to Avatar Juraj

Well, if you have edge, you don't write about it. So only not so interesting stuff is written about, the really interesting stuff is traded.

That's why I like market prices (including prediction markets) more than journalists. I once wanted to bet 100$ with a financial journalist ("analyst") so he has more skin in the game in his "prediction". He did not want to do it - he earns a salary as a journalist regardless of whether the stories he invents in his head are true or not. The real category of financial journalism is "entertainment".

(Here's a chapter from my book about prediction markets: https://juraj.bednar.io/en/blog-en/2021/06/23/prediction-markets-crowdsourcing-information-for-good-decisions/ )

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Laeserin 1y ago

Yeah, but this basic national demographics. 🤷‍♀️ The stats get published every year, but they're too lazy to recalculate the numbers from the new data sets, so they go back to the calculations of someone else.

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Juraj 1y ago

Of course. Recalculation is the job of think tanks. These journo analysts don't know how to use Excel. And they are paid by word, so they optimize for cheapest cost per word.

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Laeserin 1y ago

It do be true, tho.

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