I don't believe that the bet is #btc will be worth 1 million usdc, I think the bet is on the true dollar denominated value... and since he's locking the isdc in escrow today he's spending $1M on it even if it goes to 0.. the usdc downside isn't his gain, it's the other parties loss.

Either way, I don't believe he really expects to win this bet money wise. He wants engagement.. question is what does he intend to do with the engagement, and why is that worth $1M.