Replying to Avatar VINNY

All things considered, $450-$600k by EOY 2025 would be in line with the 2020-2021 cycle for price action.

If we compare to 2016-2017 cycle, which was indeed a bigger step function for Bitcoin adoption and macro narrative, the cone of uncertainty blows out to $550k - $1.75M.

Is 2025 a step function? If nation states plant their flag, then yes, it probably is. Regardless, $500k is a decent base case. Don't listen to tradfi dipshits and sell at $200-$250k.

The S&P was -44% against BTC in 2024. There's a decent chance it will be negative against the DOLLAR in 2025. Real estate is a house of cards and maintenance costs are hyperinflating. There's no alternative for storing wealth.
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Phil Mustang 1y ago

S&P negative against the dollar would be gnar gnar. Feels like it would accelerate Bitcoin adoption in some circles and delay it in others.

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VINNY 1y ago

Listen to some of Dave Collums rants on valuation. It’s pretty wild that real earnings yields at current levels are like 1-2%. The insanity will unravel into hard money at some point. Very real chance Trump would let it unravel soon so he can blame it on previous admin