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The Math of Probability: The annual mortality rate for a 55-year-old in Germany is roughly 0.5% (or 5 per 1,000 people). Even if we use the very conservative probability arround one per mille (0.1%), the calculation is telling this-

If you have a group of 3,250 people with an average age in their 50s, the statistical expectation for natural deaths over a period like a year can be calculated:

* 3,250 candidates * 0.001 (0.1% probability) = 3.25

This calculation shows that you could statistically expect around 3-4 deaths in this group over a year purely due to natural causes, based on a very conservative rate lower then the real one. The fact that the number is 7 is slightly higher than this specific estimate, but I don’t really know how much members do they have.

Even It's still well within the realm of statistical possibility and not a massive anomaly.

Also not mentioning that the one from Afd died because of suicide?

So there is like 15 deaths of candidates around the Germany?

Weird your average age of politicians need to be more higher then 50 💀

F for them

Hans Karlsborn 4mo ago

The occurrence of seven AfD candidate deaths within 14 days is statistically highly improbable under standard assumptions (probability <0.1% for 750 candidates with a mortality rate of 20–30 per 1,000/year).

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Discussion

Wondrej 4mo ago

Oh, i see…I thought they have way more candidates.

Anyway, that one guy killed himself right?

I guess age will play a big part, too, won't it?

I can't believe they simple kill them all from running into election.

That would be too obvious, wouldn't it?

When you see seniors in their 60s and 70s stressing out in politics, it's even understandable that their time is over.

Hans Karlsborn 4mo ago

I don’t buy that naive interpretation. Evil is real, and knows how to manipulate crowds.. “This is too obvious so it cannot be true”

Wondrej 4mo ago

I don’t buy that interpretation.

It’s too obvious that Earth is geoid shaped and yet, people still think it’s flat. I’m not telling that Evil doest exist. At the end of the day using death persons as a campaign tool to manipulate crowds, yeah thats kinda evil think.

Hans Karlsborn 4mo ago

I hope you understand that the 7 deaths happened during a 13 day period, not during a full year.

Wondrej 4mo ago

I hope you understand that there is more deaths all around the parties.