It’s been a few years since I read it so I can’t remember who he is 😂

Bitcoin is a very good example though. People who get it have high conviction because they have studied it deeply, recognised and challenged their biases, have realised there are failure scenarios but they’re all incredibly low probability, and that drivers that will see NGU are extremely high probability. They’ve explored the branches of a big decision tree (the rabbit hole) and are benefiting from it.

As I said in my other comment, these people who are very good at predictions have stumbled on praxeology without realising it.

Years ago I read a lot of poker books and that teaches similar - you’re essentially looking at decision trees of probabilities just in a confined game. It’s a really good place to start. But I realised then you can take the same approach to many decisions in life if you understand the constraints and you’ll get way better than the average person at predicting future outcomes. I predicted and bet on Qatar to get the hosting rights to WC2022 using some of these skills early on and have got quite good at predicting elections (always bet on corruption 😂).

By no means do I get 100% right, but I’m definitely above average and it gets better over time as you bring more knowledge and data points into calls. This book explores people who have done this and gives some good tips if it’s something you want to get better at yourself.